Unless you’re interested in reading any and everyone’s opinion on what Ronda Rousey will do next, the MMA news world has slowed down significantly through the middle of the week. Luckily, there’s a busy weekend ahead of fight fans, as the UFC, Bellator, WSOF, and ONE FC are all putting on cards this weekend. The spacing is quite nice as well. Bellator and WSOF will be running on Friday, ONE FC on Saturday morning, and UFC on Saturday night. The odds have already been released for the UFC and Bellator cards, but WSOF 25 deserves some attention as well, since it features a pretty solid field in a one-night, eight-man lightweight tournament. The winner of the tournament will deservedly get a crack at 155lb champion Justin Gaethje. The tournament field includes two-time title challenger Luis Palomino, who will be taking on another previous Gaethje victim, Rich Patishnock. Sharing their side of the bracket are UFC veterans Brian Foster and Joao Zeferino. A potential semi-final between Foster and Palomino could be the fight of the tournament, should it come together. On the opposite end of the bracket, TUF runner-up Mike Ricci will take on Brian Cobb, while once-beaten Dagestani prospect Islam Mamedov faces ancient UFC title challenger Jorge ‘Macaco’ Patino. Mamedov was 8 years old when ‘Macaco’ faced Pat Miletich at UFC 18 for the then ‘lightweight’ title (170lbs). The tournament bouts will be two-rounds for the quarter and semi-finals, with the final bout being a standard three-round contest. Elbows will be illegal until the final. Should any winning fighter not be medically cleared to advance, his opponent will advance instead (if cleared), or the winner from one of the reserve bouts (LaRue Burley vs. Joe Condon, and Benny Madrid vs. Ramil Mustapayev) will be chosen. WSOF 25 also features the organizational debuts of Jason High and Estevan Payan in a lightweight bout that will serve as the co-main event. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for WSOF 25 today at Several Bookmakers. Keep an eye out at Several Bookmakers, as there may be prices posted on individual fighters to win the entire tournament as well. ——————– MAIN CARD (NBC Sports Network, 11pm ET) Jason High -475 Estevan Payan +325 Over 2.5 -190 Under 2.5 +150 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Internet Stream, 8pm ET) Lightweight Tournament Quarterfinals Luis Palomino -350 Richard Patishnock +250 Over 1.5 -120 Under 1.5 -120 Brian Foster -315 Joao Zeferino +235 Over 1.5 +115 Under 1.5 -155 Mike Ricci -280 Brian Cobb +200 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 Islam Mamedov -400 Jorge Patino +280 Over 1.5 -140 Under 1.5 +100 Lightweight Tournament Reserve Bouts LaRue Burley -705 Joe Condon +435 Over 1.5 -120 Under 1.5 -120 Ramil Mustapayev -350 Benny Madrid +250 Over 1.5 -140 Under 1.5 +100 ——————– *New Odds Posted After Fight Card Change: Mike Ricci -1200 Joe Condon +600 Over 1.5 +100 Under 1.5 -140 — LaRue Burley -270 Ramil Mustapayev +190 Over 1.5 -115 Under 1.5 -125 ——————– WSOF 8-Man Lightweight Tournament 2015 Odds To Win Islam Mamedov +200 Brian Foster +225 Mike Ricci +225 Luis Palomino +700 Joao Zeferino +700 LaRue Burley +925 Richard Patishnock +1200 Jorge Patino +1200 Ramil Mustapayev +1500 Joe Condon +2000 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: There are so many factors that go in to predicting a one-night tournament winner that it becomes nearly impossible. Islam Mamedov seems like the public will make him the favorite based on what he’s accomplished so far in WSOF, the talent he possesses, and the absurd hype behind Dagestani fighters, but it’s a tricky spot for the young fighter. Outside of Alexander Sarnavskiy in his second career fight, he’s never faced a high-level of competition. In order to win this tournament, he’ll likely have to beat the two best opponents of his career, after facing a veteran with over 50 fights to his name. Mamedov has the highest ceiling of these fighters, but if the tournament odds as a whole come out, I think I’d rather look at Brian Foster. As for the individual matchups, I think the opening round is actually pretty interesting. Palomino should dispatch Patishnock on the feet with relative ease, especially since Patishnock hasn’t competed since January 2014. Joao Zeferino could be a bit of a wildcard in his bout with Brian Foster, as he’s won five straight since being cut from the UFC, all by stoppage. Foster has had a propensity to fall into submissions in the past, and Zeferino has 13 wins via sub. I still think Foster keeps it on the feet and batters the Brazilian, but in a crazy format like this tournament, I wouldn’t be willing to lay a big price. Brian Cobb could be in line to upset Mike Ricci with the grappling style that has given Ricci trouble in the past. Cobb is a solid wrestler with good control on the ground, and while we’ve seen Ricci improve his own offensive wrestling and top control, we haven’t seen his defense tested in a while. A huge red flag on Cobb’s side is that his last fight was all the way back in June 2013, when he hung tough with Gaethje for two rounds before the leg kicks piled up and he couldn’t continue. Cobb is also 35 now, which doesn’t bode well for surviving through three fights in a night. Speaking of old fighters, Jorge Patino is 42. He once challenged for a UFC title… but it wasn’t in this millennium. However, that hasn’t prevented him from enjoying one of the most successful stretches of his career. Since 2011, Patino has gone 11-2-1 including capturing the lightweight and welterweight Legacy FC titles. He could be in for a rough night here because of the physical matchup, but I honestly think Islam Mamedov is overrated based on what I’ve seen. Still, Patino will struggle to get Mamedov down, and on the feet the Dagestani is on a different level with his length and variety. Patino has only been finished with strikes three times in his 55-fight career, and I don’t think Mamedov adds to that mark here despite his quick finishes in the past. Jason High’s only potential issues against Estevan Payan are his year-plus layoff, and High landing the punch of his life. High is the better wrestler and overall submission grappler, and Payan’s chin has been cracked on numerous occasions. Payan has also been yo-yoing in weight recently, which is never a great sign. Traditionally he’s a featherweight, so he’ll be the smaller fighter in with High as well.
