By @fightnomics The main event this weekend in Sao Paulo Brazil is a trilogy fight between two of the most famous veterans of the sport. It’s also a matchup between two older fighters, presumably having to compete off of testosterone supplements despite being longtime users before the TRT ban. Regardless, maximal strength is one of the last attributes to fade for an athlete, even after speed, reaction time, and brain resiliency have long since declined. That means that Dan Henderson and Vitor Belfort should still be packing plenty of punch, but also that their ability to avoid and withstand a heavy shot may be at an all-time low. So should the combatants in the main event decide to trade heavy leather, fans should keep their eyes peeled for as long (or as brief) as the fight lasts. Notably, the Under of 1.5 rounds for this fight is -135, suggesting the market believes that chances are low that this fight will get out of the second round. The Inside the Distance prop is a staggering -800, so clearly very few are expecting this to go a full five rounds, with the most likely betting outcome based on prop odds being Belfort by TKO. But what about the rest of the card? Where else is there some knockout potential? As we’ll see below, there are some heavy hitters that may be flying under the radar, and some have favorable matchups. So let’s consider both the offensive Knockdown Rate and the Knockdown Defense of the fighters, and then consider how they might factor into their matchups. Some fighters are much better at scoring knockouts, while others are good at defending them, but lack power of their own. The fighters are sorted top to bottom based on the difference between their Offensive Knockdown Rate and their Defensive Knockdown Rate, so it’s great to be near the top of the list, and not good at all to be at the bottom. Let’s see how they all stack up.
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Clay Guida versus Thiago Tavares The main event isn’t the only matchup of veterans on the night, these guys have logged a combined 431 minutes of fight time in the Octagon, which is over seven hours! But through all those fights, it’s Tavares who has taken more damage. Having been dropped six times to date, Tavares’s resiliency is more in question than Guida’s, who also happens to have demonstrated more power. So if one fighter is going to get the knockout in Brazil, it’s more likely to be Guida. He’ll have to stay away from the dangerous submission game of Tavares if he’s going to pull that off. Guida is the slight favorite. Yan Cabral versus Johnny Case Not a ton of data on these two, but each fighter has three UFC fights under his belt thus far. Each man has also scored one knockdown to date, and not been knocked down themselves. But Cabral was able to do damage in fewer strikes, resulting in a higher Knockdown Rate. The sample size is likely misleading here, as Case has as career full of knockout victories and the reputation for the stronger striking game, while Cabral is clearly the submission specialist. The odds are favoring the striking game of Case, but each man has a dangerous path to victory. Gleison Tibau versus Abel Trujillo It’s been Tibau’s reliable wrestling that has helped him grind out many a decision in the UFC, but his chin that has sometimes been a weak point. Enter Abel Trujillo, a relative newcomer, but one who has already made quite an impression with his power. His three knockdowns to date have come at a high pace for the Lightweight division, and his power is a clear threat against Tibau. The line is nearly a pick em’, but the paths to victory for each man are very different. So if there’s a knockout, expect it from Trujillo. Fabio Maldonado versus Corey Anderson Both these guys have abnormally high power striking accuracy, and also maintain an aggressive pace of action in their standup. But apparently they’ve sacrificed power in favor of pace and precision. Maldonado has scored a single distance knockdown, while Anderson has none, and these numbers are both low for the Light Heavyweight Division. In terms of resiliency, Maldonado appears to be the more worn fighter. Not only is he on the wrong side of age 35, he’s a former professional boxer. So while Maldonado is great with his hands, he’s taken a lot of damage over the years, especially outside the Octagon. The striking duel here will be interesting to watch, but if Anderson decides to take the fight down, he’ll have a big advantage there. Hence, Anderson is the sizable favorite here, and the biggest favorite on the card. Gilbert Burns versus Rashid Magomedov Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Gilbert Burns has yet to prove he can also utilize his striking effectively, and that may be a problem against Magomedov, who has finished plenty of opponents with strikes. Magomedov has all the striking advantages in this matchup, especially in power, but he is only a mild favorite presumably due to Burns’s submission game threat. Alex Oliveira versus Poitr Hallmann The rangy Oliveira will likely be the more technical striker against Hallmann, but the stats here are again limited. Neither man has been able to demonstrate any power since coming to the Octagon. Hallmann, however, has been dropped, and the two fighters appear to be on opposite career trajectories. The Brazilian has the winning momentum and the home cage to go with his technical and reach advantages, hence he’s more than a two-to-one favorite over the Polish fighter. Glover Teixeira versus Patrick Cummins Another mismatch of styles will collide in the co-main event, where wrestler Patrick Cummins takes on the well-rounded dual threat and former title contender Glover Teixeira. Teixeira has power in his hands and a healthy submission game on the mat, whereas Cummins’s only hope for an upset is to use his stifling top control to grind down the Brazilian. The vulnerability is that Cummins has been dropped twice, on a pretty low strike count, meaning that if Teixeira finds his target at any point it will be a big problem for Cummins. For that reason Teixeira is the second biggest favorite on the card behind Anderson. Vitor Belfort versus Dan Henderson The cumulative knockdown stats in this matchup are remarkable. Henderson and Belfort have collectively scored 16 knockdowns, and suffered 11 of their own. On a per strike basis, Belfort has a much higher Knockdown Rate, but also the worse chin. The Southpaw Brazilian is also nearly seven years younger than Henderson, though both men are up there in age and have a big liability in having to fight without a testosterone usage exemption. In a fight with a lot of potential wild cards, the heavy hands and fragile chins of both combatants are ingredients for fireworks one way or the other. So sit back and don’t blink. Belfort’s speed should be the early differentiator, but if he fails to score fast, Henderson will have more time to land an H-bomb. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.