Paddy Holohan vs Louis might be one of the worst UFC main events ever. How did we get here? The original UFC Fight Night 76 main event was supposed to be Joseph Duffy vs Dustin Poirer, but Duffy had to withdraw from the fight because he sustained a concussion. The UFC would have elevated Ben Rothwell vs Stipe Miocic from co-main to main event status, however, Miocic had pulled out of the fight just a few days prior to Duffy’s injury. Thus, the new main event is Paddy “The Hooligan” Holohan and Louis “Da Last Samurai’’ Smolka, which is a fight more deserving of a preliminary card main event, if that. Paddy Holohan (12-1-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC, +100 underdog) Holohan had a great record in recent years but his teammate, Conor McGregor, probably helped get him into the UFC. The fighters Holohan beat before he entered the UFC were not very good to say the least, but he has proved he belongs so far. Holohan is part of the Straight Blast Gym, which is home to UFC Interim-Featherweight champion McGregor, Cathal Pendred, and Aisling Daly. His UFC run started with a dominant first round submission victory over Josh Sampo, a fight where Holohan was a pretty big underdog. “The Hooligan” is one of the biggest flyweights in the UFC, as he stands in at 5’ 11’’ tall and holds a 70 inch reach. Holohan has several issues he needs to work on. He doesn’t use his reach advantage like he should, he often closes the distance for his opponents which allows them to easily work on the inside. On the feet, Holohan has a very awkward style. He utilizes a lot of feints and movement but does not have a very good kicking game. He has a decent jab but does not throw combinations well or utilize his impressive leg reach either. When he does get taken down, he does a good job of getting back to his feet and he can threaten with submissions due to his length. Louis Smolka (9-1 MMA, 3-1 USA, -120 favorite) Smolka is an up-and-coming fighter that trains with fellow Hawaiian Max Holloway and Russell Doane. Like Holohan, “The last Samurai” is constantly improving his ground game and wrestling. Smolka is very aggressive on the canvas and is always hunting for submissions. He has a deep arsenal of chokes at his disposal, especially his D’arce choke. One area he needs to work on is his defensive wrestling, even though he showed improvement in his last fight against Neil Seery. On the feet Smolka is an aggressive striker that has a very well-rounded attack. He likes to lead with a jab and right hook, which he hits at a high percentage. Further, he uses a plethora of other attacks, such as the side kick he knocked out Richie Vaculik with in November. He is capable of extreme violence but he also tends to become inactive at times. Additionally, he is a very defensively sound fighter and has shown a lot of heart of in the Octagon. Thoughts This is a contest between young flyweights that are trying to make their way up the flyweight division’s ladder. As far as the matchup is concerned, Smolka and Holohan are fighters who can do a little bit of everything. They are very similar in terms of size, height and reach, so neither fighter will have a large physical advantage. Both are decent jiu-jitsu players, but their offensive and defensive wresting could use some work. I would not be surprised to see them exchange takedowns, get up and strike, and then do it all over again. I think their grappling will cancel out and Smolka will win based on his superior striking and scrambling ability. The prediction: Louis Smolka defeats Paddy Holohan by unanimous decision
