UFC Fight Night 76 Date: October 24, 2015 Arena: 3Arena City: Dublin, Ireland The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Dublin, Ireland this Saturday (October 24, 2015) with UFC Fight Night 76: Poirier vs Duffy. The 11-fight card will be live on Fight Pass in its entirety, with preliminary action kicking off at 1pm ET and the main card getting going at 4pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Middleweight bout: Darren Till (+115) vs Nicolas Dalby (-135) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a scrap between two talented, undefeated prospects in the UFC’s welterweight division, with both fighters picking up wins in their promotional debuts and now aiming to make it two in a row inside the Octagon. It’s tough to bet against Dalby, but I think there is value in Till at his current offering price of +115, as I think he should be a betting favorite heading into this 170-pound affair. I think Dalby will be the stiffest test of the Brazil-based Brit’s professional mixed martial arts career, but I think he is capable of passing it, and likely with a highlight reel finish. I could be wrong, but by fight time, I expect the lines will have flipped and we’ll be looking at Till as the favorite, possibly up to -160, which is what I think his line should be heading into this contest. Gabe’s Call: Till by T/KO (punches, 3:34 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Till (+115) 3u to win 3.45u Flyweight bout: Jon delos Reyes (+135) vs Neil Seery (-155) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the absolute only way Seery wins this fight is if he blankets Reyes for the majority of three rounds for a decision nod, all while defending delos Reyes’ constant submission attempts. That is a very realistic outcome to this 125-pound scrap and arguably the most likely outcome, but nonetheless it is, in my opinion, Seery’s one and only route to victory. Delos Reyes, however, has multiple routes to getting his hand raised here. I think he could very realistically submit Seery, from top position or off his back, which is also arguably the most likely outcome to this bout. He could also outwork Seery over the course of three rounds for a decision win, and although not as likely, he could find himself in position to rain down enough strikes on Seery to warrant a TKO stoppage. This is a close fight, but delos Reyes is the younger, fresher fighter with a higher ceiling and in my opinion is the superior mixed martial artist. It is also worth noting that he is coming off a win, while Seery is coming off a loss. Seery will be enjoying a hometown advantage in this bout, though that did not help him in his last outing at UFC 189 in Las Vegas, which had full Irish support due to the McGregor vs Mendes interim-featherweight title fight. To conclude, I think delos Reyes should be a -130 betting favorite in this flyweight match-up, so I like him for a value play at his current underdog tag of +135. Gabe’s Call: delos Reyes by Technical Submission (rear naked choke, 1:34 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: delos Reyes (+135) 2u to win 2.7u Middleweight bout: Krzysztof Jotko (+115) vs Scott Askham (-135) Gabe’s Thoughts: Askham is a game opponent but I think Jotko should be the betting favorite here, as I see him getting the better of Askham over the course of three rounds to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I think Jotko should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite in this middleweight match-up, so I favor him for a value wager at his current underdog price of +115. I this will likely be an uneventful three rounds of action resulting in Jotko ultimately grinding out the win. Gabe’s Call: Jotko by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Jotko (+115) 3u to win 3.45u
