UFC Fight Night 75 Date: September 26, 2015 Arena: Saitama Super Arena City: Saitama, Japan The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Saitama, Japan for UFC Fight Night 75: Nelson vs Barnett. The 10-fight card will get underway with the FOX Sports 2 prelims at 8pm ET and with the main card getting going at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs for UFC Fight Night 75: Flyweight bout: Chico Camus (+250) vs Kyoji Horiguchi (-325) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Horiguchi is the rightful betting favorite heading into this 125-pound contest and believe he has more routes to victory. That said, I don’t agree with his current offering price of -325, as I think he should be favored at only 2-to-1. Camus is back with Roufusport and has been improving since getting back with the camp and dropping down to the 125-pound weight class. He’s coming off a competitive unanimous decision loss to Henry Cejudo and looks to bounce back into the win column against Horiguchi. Camus was a massive underdog heading into the Cejudo fight but did not look it. He gave the Olympian a fight and despite a loss on his record, he walked away with a moral victory that evening. Horiguchi also hopes to return to the win column with a win this weekend, last seeing action while competing for Demetrious Johnson’s UFC Flyweight Championship title. He did not look good againt “Mighty Mouse” and ended up being on the losing end of the latest finish in UFC history, coming via armbar with only one second remaining in the fifth and rinal round of action. I think this fight is closer than the betting odds indicate, and while I think Horiguchi is more likely to get his hand raised, I see enough value in Camus to pull the trigger on a play. Gabe’s Call: Horiguchi by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Camus (+250) 1.5u to win 3.75u Bantamweight bout: George Roop (+180) vs Takeya Mizugaki (-240) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think this 135-pound scrap is a lot closer than the betting odds currently indicate. I see this as a coin-flip fight, so at his current betting price of +180, I think Roop is the right side for a value play. Gabe’s Call: Roop by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Roop (+180) 2u to win 3.6u
