UFC 191 September 5th, 2015 Bantamweight Matchup: John Lineker vs Francisco Rivera By @fightnomics The UFC’s college football kickoff event this weekend is loaded with heavy hitters, and not all of them are reserved for the pay-per-view broadcast. The prelims for UFC 191 are also packing some heat, and two matchups in particular should be quite the striking duels. Lightweights Ross Pearson and Paul Felder are sure to toe-to-toe, as are Bantamweights Francisco Rivera and John Lineker. The latter matchup of the two features two ranked fighters, who are potential contenders down the road. However, Lineker is moving up a weight class, so he’ll be testing himself for the first time at 135 pounds. The odds opened as a pick em’ and Lineker has since moved to a slight favorite at -135, with the underdog Rivera +115. So let’s take a closer look at two men known for their knockouts to see who gets the edge on the statline. Summary Stats:
Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape reveals a few discrepancies in this matchup. First, Lineker has a small frame, which is why he tried to compete at Flyweight. But having missed weight too many times, Lineker will now try his hands at Bantamweight where he’ll be out-ranged by some opponents. But Lineker is still young, despite being an eight-fight UFC veteran, while Rivera is about to hit 34. That Youth Advantage for Lineker is sizable, and also a key part of cracking this matchup case. Striking Matchup: When we looked at the Bantamweight division strikers, John Lineker stood out as an offensive stud. He combines good cage control and pressure with high accuracy and tons of power with seven career UFC knockdowns. Rivera was solid too, just not able to pressure opponents the same way. And round to round, if Lineker is initiating more exchanges and landing as effectively as he normally does, he should get the edge on the cards. In Lineker’s last fight against Ian McCall, he faced down an elusive and hard to hit Ian McCall, and beat the odds against the favored and higher ranked contender. The bigger difference here is defensively. Strike for strike, Lineker gets the edge in offense and power. But Lineker also appears easier to hit than Rivera. However, despite tight defense, Rivera has been dropped at a far greater rate. Somehow, Rivera has managed not to get finished by strikes in UFC action, but the five knockdowns he’s suffered has led to finishes via submission. Furthermore, his age makes him much less reliable taking shots than Lineker, who has never been dropped, and is still in his youthful prime. The edge here goes to Lineker. Ultimately he should be the busier fighter and also the more dangerous one for a knockout, so he appears to be a deserving favorite. Grappling Matchup: This fight screams striker’s duel, because neither man attempts many takedowns. Rivera and Lineker have only landed five and six takedowns, respectively, through 17 measured fights. So despite solid takedown defense on both sides, most of their time spent on the ground has been getting controlled by fighters who did not want to stand and trade with them. In this matchup, each striker probably likes their chances against the other and will fight to their strength. We’d have to see a big divergence in style for one fighter to employ a grappling strategy against the other. And based on the back and forth even metrics in grappling and wrestling between them, it’s a tossup as to who might have the advantage on the mat. The ground game probably won’t be the deciding factor. Fightnomics Pick: Lineker to Win (Click for latest MMA odds) Fightnomics Recommended Play: Overall, Lineker gets a big edge in youth and resiliency, and when the leather flies, that should mean he can take a few to give a few. Rivera has the tighter technical defense, but he’s been hurt numerous times against some less impressive strikers than Lineker. And Lineker at Bantamweight should mean better conditioning and even more power. Given the very tight odds and several edges aligning, Lineker make a decent play here. The Under of 2.5 rounds is nearly even at -105, which is reasonable. Smaller guys don’t normally finish fights, and we shouldn’t see a submission either way, but the willingness of both men to trade combined with the offensive power makes a striking finish more likely at some point. The near-even return on the Under is playable, as is small prop on Lineker by TKO at +250. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.