The co-main event of UFC 191 is heavyweight fight between two fighters that have recently had a career resurgence. Each fighter had lost four in a row at one point, most of which were by knockout. However, these two veterans showed off their heart and resilience by improving their overall game and putting together some impressive wins inside the Octagon. Andrei Arlovski (24-10 (1 NC) MMA, 13-4 UFC, -155 favorite) Arlovski made a surprising return to the UFC in June of 2014 when he faced Brendan Schaub at UFC 174. The bout was very controversial, as almost every observer thought Schaub had done enough to win the fight. However, the judges disagreed and awarded Arlovski a split decision victory. Andrei did not let his critics get him down though, as he has since reeled off consecutive first round knockouts of Antonio Silva and Travis Browne. He is now the #4 ranked heavyweight in the UFC and could earn a shot at the title with another win or two. Andre has recorded impressive wins over Fabricio Werdum, Roy Nelson, Browne, Ben Rothwell, and former champion Tim Sylvia. The 36 year old Arlovski began his mixed martial arts career an astonishing 16 years ago. Prior to his first fight he had competed in combat sambo and judo. Andrei is known as a heavy-handed striker that utilizes good footwork and angles, which allows him to get off his big right hand. He works a solid jab, which is usually followed up by a vicious straight right or right uppercut. Kicks are not a huge part of Andrei’s striking attack, but they are effective when they land. Arlovski is a knockout artist through and through, as 17 out of his 24 career wins have come via knockout. As I mentioned, Arlovski has a background in combat sambo and judo, so he can handle himself on the ground quite well. He does not go for submissions or takedowns often, as he prefers to keep his fights on the feet. Arlovski has not recorded a win by submission since he knocked down Tim Sylvia with a big right hand and finished him with an achilles lock ten years ago. That win won him the Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship, which later turned into the real championship after then champion Frank Mir was not able to recover fast enough from a devastating motorcycle accident. Defensively, Andrei has pretty good takedown defense and has never lost a fight by submission. Frank Mir (18-9 MMA, 16-9 UFC, +135 underdog) Mir was another fighter that was written off by most fans, except he was written off only a year and a half ago. He was on a four fight losing streak at the time, and all four of those losses were completely one-sided affairs. After the three round beating Alistair Overeem gave him in early 2014, Mir decided to take a year off to improve his game, regain his focus, and heal up some lingering injuries. The year layoff certainly seemed to have helped, as he scored a brutal knockout in his return to action against Antonio Silva in February of this year. He followed that up with another thunderous knockout against the heavily hyped Todd Duffee. Frank once again finds himself back in top ten of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings and will look to continue his streak this Saturday night. Like Arlovski, Mir is 36 years old and has been competing in this sport for 15 years. Frank is a two-time UFC Heavyweight Champion, which is a tremendous accomplishment. Unfortunately, he was stripped of his first title a year after winning it because of injuries he sustained from a motorcycle accident. Mir’s second UFC Heavyweight Championship was only an interim title, as then champion Brock Lesnar was on the shelf due to health issues. Mir will go down as one of the best submission fighters the sport has ever seen. Frank’s guard is extremely dangerous, as he can transition from one submission to another very quickly. Once he gets a submission locked in he has the grip of an anaconda, as Nogueira can attest to, as he broke his arm when he did not tap when Mir had him in a kimura. One issue with his ground game, however, is that he does not have very good wresting, which often leaves him stranded on the feet against better strikers. Further, he often finds himself getting pressed up against the fence and worked over in the clinch. Mir will need to improve his ability to secure an underhook and circle away from the cage. Although Frank is known mostly as a submission fighter, he has a surprising number of knockouts on his resume, including his last two fights. He has a solid counter left hook from the southpaw stance and a decent jab when he chooses to throw it. He also utilizes strong knees and elbows in the clinch when his opponent is not able to outmuscle him in the clinch. Working under head coach Jimmy Gifford has added some new elements to his game, as he takes a more tactical approach to fighting now. He has his meals prepped and his coaches watch extensive amounts of tape on his opponent to come up with a suitable game plan. Thoughts It is amazing that we are seeing this fight take place in the Octagon approximately ten years after it was originally scheduled. Both fighters have had their ups and downs since. Arlovski has fought for several promotions across the globe since leaving the UFC in 2008, while Mir has been a UFC mainstay since 2001. It is remarkable that they have both been able to overcome such adversity and become contenders in the heavyweight division again. Most pundits and fans had written them off years ago. As far as this matchup is concerned, I give the edge to Arlovski. He is the better striker and has the takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet, which is where he wants it. While Mir has certainly improved his striking, especially his ability to counter, he will still be at a disadvantage on the feet. However, that does not mean Mir cannot win. Mir has heavy hands and if this fight hits the ground he can catch Arlovski in a submission quickly. Further, both fighters are 36 years old and have been knocked out several times each. It might come down to who lands the big shot first. I think Arlovski will be the one that catches Mir first, probably with a straight right that ends Mir’s night. The Prediction: Andrei Arlovski defeats Frank Mir by knockout (round 1)
