The main card of UFC Fight Night 74 features a lightweight contest between top prospect Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Tony Sims. After losing his UFC debut to Chad Laprise, Aubin-Mercier has recorded consecutive submission wins inside the Octagon. Sims, meanwhile, made good on his UFC debut in June by knocking out Steve Montgomery in the first round. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, -240 favorite) Aubin-Mercier has been labeled as one of the top lightweight prospects for quite some time. The 26-year old is a black belt in Judo and is even a former member of the Canadian National Judo team. Aubin-Mercier first got the attention of fans as a competitor on The Ultimate Fighter: Nations. He had two dominant showings in the first two rounds of the competition, but lost to now teammate Chad Laprise in the finals. All six of his wins have come by submission, including five via rear-naked choke. Aubin-Mercier is a tremendous athlete that has lethal submissions and a constantly improving striking game. The Canadian has smooth trips and throws in the clinch, as well as a decent traditional double-leg takedown. From top position he passes well and is adept at taking his opponent’s back, which is evident by his five wins by rear-naked choke. The area Olivier has improved the most in the last two years is his striking. While he is not much of a combination striker, Aubin-Mercier throws powerful straight left hands and kicks from a southpaw stance. He does an especially good job of kicking his opponent’s body and head with his rear leg. Olivier’s defensive wrestling is decent, but he can be taken down by strong wrestlers. However, he is difficult to hold down and does a good job of scrambling back to his feet. Tony Sims (12-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC, +200 underdog) Sims had been on the UFC’s radar for quite a while before he eventually signed with the promotion this past June. In fact, he was supposed to earn a UFC contract if he defeated Drew Dober in 2013. However, Sims lost the fight via controversial split decision and did not receive the call up to the big leagues. Tony had to rattle off three more wins, all by knockout, before he received the long awaited call. The 29 year old is a member of The Elevation Fight Team, which is based out of Denver, Colorado and home to fellow UFC fighters Cat Zingano, Brandon Thatch, and Neil Magny. All twelve of Sims’ wins have come before the final bell, including ten via knockout. Sims is a heavy-handed striker that has an impressive amateur boxing background. He throws fast and powerful combinations from both stances, though much of his best work has come from the southpaw stance. Solid fundamentals and footwork are staples of his striking attack, which mainly consists of punches in the pocket and a few leg kicks from range. Sims is adept at exchanging punches in the pocket, as he has a good chin and is not afraid to bite down on his mouthpiece and let his hands go. He would likely benefit from adding more kicks to his game, but we have not seen that yet. Not to rely on only one discipline, Tony is also an accomplished wrestler that works well from top position. He has a strong double-leg takedown in his arsenal, as well as trips in the clinch. When top position is achieved, he stays active by throwing steady ground and pound, including hard elbows. While Sims does have two wins by submission, he is not a big submission threat. Further, Tony actually tends to put himself in compromising positions on the mat, which he often has to fight his way out of. That could be a big problem against the submission savvy Aubin-Mercier. Additionally, Sims’ defensive wrestling has been exploited in past contests, which is something to watch out for in this fight. Thoughts This is a very interesting fight between top prospects in the lightweight division. It may not show by the betting odds, but Sims is a very dangerous fighter and should not be counted out. He has big knockout power, as well as good offensive wrestling. Aubin-Mercier, on the other hand, is strong in a few areas that Sims has had trouble with in the past. Sims will be in danger if Aubin-Mercier is able to take him down, which is something he will likely be able to do. As long as he doesn’t get caught by a big punch, Aubin-Mercier should be able to either find a submission or grind out a decision. The Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier defeats Tony Sims by submission (rear-naked choke, round three).
