By @fightnomics FOX cards usually deliver plenty of hard hitters, but there are some stylistic contrasts brewing on this weekend’s matchups in Chicago, including a number of fights that will boil down to a striker versus a grappler. But where, exactly? This metric shows what percentage of a fighter’s total fight time is spent not only on the ground, but controlling their opponent. Scoring high on this metric means a fighter is not only attempting a lot of takedowns, but landing them, and keeping opponents down once they’ve gotten them down. It also means they aren’t getting reversed. The UFC average is about 15%.
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Most Effective Wrestlers Her nickname may currently be “Cupcake,” but Miesha Tate used be known as “Takedown” thanks to her high school wrestling base and frequent double-legs. More than half of all the cage time she has spent in Strikeforce and the UFC has been on the mat, and controlling her opponents. That bodes well for her against Jessica Eye, who primarily likes to strike and could be a threat to Tate if the fight stays on the feet. Nearly tied with Tate is Ben Saunders, who managed to spend as little time as possible trading from a distance. Saunders has spent more time clinching than standing at a distance from opponents, but has spent the most time of all on the mat. Saunders has used some savvy submissions to date, which will be needed given that he’s facing another strong and frequent wrestler in Kenny Robertson. Between him and Saunders, Robertson is much more likely to initiate the takedowns and end up on top, while Saunders will be retaliating with submissions. Ramsey Nijem is another wrestler who likes to put opponents on their back. He’s facing a UFC newcomer with plenty of career submission finishes, so we’ll see if Nijem keeps it standing or goes for the takedown and risks a ground attack. Other Frequent Wrestlers Fighters below the 50% mark are still utilizing wrestling far more than the UFC average. That includes Jim Miller and Danny Castillo, who have both spent plenty of time in control. However, similarly to the Robertson-Saunders matchup, we have one fighter stronger in pure wrestling (in this case Castillo) against someone more known for submissions (Miller). So even on the ground, stylistic contrasts abound. If Castillo can avoid submissions, he could grind down Miller. Another wrestling stud is Tom Lawlor, who not only has controlled opponents on the ground, but also in the clinch. He may want to do both those things against the kick-happy Gian Villante. Joe Lauzon is an all-around threat and bonus winning machine. While it’s his submissions that he’s most famous for, his solid wrestling base has helped set them up. From his back he’s also skilled at pulling sweeps to reverse position, which could come in handy against the more reluctant grappler, Takanori Gomi. Paul Felder is mostly a striker, but was able to utilize good defensive wrestling against a continual onslaught of takedown attempts in his first two fights. He’s likely going to be in a striking duel this week with Edson Barboza, but if Felder hurts Barboza at any point, his wrestling will help him control position for the finish. Bryan Carraway has taken 17 of his 19 career victories by submission, making his ground game absolutely critical to his success. Against dangerous power striker Eddie Wineland, Carraway’s wrestling will be more important than ever. Above Average Control Time Daron Cruickshank has mostly appeared in highlight reels with his dangerous strikes, but the guy is no slouch on the mat. He’s actually attempted more than twice the takedowns of his opponents, with solid takedown offense and defense metrics. However, against James Krause, look for Cruickshank to want to keep it standing in order to test Krause’s chin early and often. Perhaps the most surprising insight from this graph is how little TJ Dillashaw has used his wrestling. He’s never been taken down, and has controlled opponents for all his time on the ground, but his total minutes spent on the mat are about average. Still, his wrestling based honed at Team Alpha Male is surely a powerful weapon if he chooses to wield it…If. Keeping it Standing The bottom of the list is loaded with fighters who clearly like to keep things standing due to their strong striking skills. All of these fighters are reluctant to attempt takedowns, and other than Barboza, all of them are facing a fighter that is more likely to wrestle them. That means there are position battles brewing throughout the card. Takanori Gomi, Eddie Wineland, Jessica Eye, and Gian Villante especially are facing dangerous wrestlers and/or submission artists, and will all need to stop early takedowns to keep the fight where they need it to be. That means the opening minutes of each of their matchups will be especially interesting in terms of the battle for position. And most importantly, Renan Barao will need to have an answer for TJ Dillashaw’s striking, or else he’ll be outgunned regardless of where the fight goes. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here.