One of the prelims at UFC 189 is a three-round lightweight bout between Yosdenis Cedeno and Cody Pfister. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Cedeno is a -190 favorite (bet $190 to win $100) while Pfister is a +165 underdog (bet $100 to win $165). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Cedeno at -190 and Pfister at +150, and this fight has not seen much betting action so far. Despite the lack of betting action on this fight, I do agree with Cedeno being the favorite and I’m picking him to win. Here’s why. Cedeno (10-4) is 1-2 in the UFC with a TKO win over Jerrod Sanders with decision losses to Ernest Chavez and Chad Laprise. The 30-year-old Cuban is a pretty decent striker on the feet with solid power. Of his 10 wins, seven have come by knockout, including his sole win in the UFC. He has solid striking overall and mixed in punches and kicks nicely. But while he is solid on the feet, his weakness is his wrestling. He was grinded out in both of his UFC fights and as he fights higher levels of competition his takedown defence will become a concern. As well, when he gets grinded on he tends to get tired as the fight goes on. He is taking on another grinder-type in Pfister for this fight, and he will be looking to avoid getting taken down and keeping this fight on the feet. If he can do that, he can win in a fashion similar to the Sanders fight, but if he gets taken down this fight may look like both of his losses. Pfister (11-4-1) made his UFC debut on short notice when he fought James Moontasri his last time out, losing that fight via second-round submission after absolutely getting torched on the feet. The 24-year-old American showed heart and toughness in that fight, but ultimately was outclassed by a far superior striker and took a ton of damage for as long as the fight lasted. We saw in that fight that Pfister is a tough guy who constantly moves forward, even in the face of adversity, but we also saw how hittable he is, which is a concern going up against a striker like Cedeno. One of the things we did see was that Pfister is a guy who will always shoot for takedowns, even if they aren’t working, and he doesn’t really get tired doing so. However, if a fighter has worse takedown defence than Moontasri does, then Pfister likely will have more success with his wrestling. He’s a decent grinder overall, but he’s more suited to a regional show, and with his non-existent strike defence to me I’d be surprised if Pfister won many fights at the UFC level. I do believe Cedeno is a far more dangerous fighter — especially on the feet — in this matchup. Having said that, Pfister is a pretty tough guy and he likely will have the edge in wrestling and cardio in this fight. I’m imagining Cedeno comes out swinging and does damage on the feet and has success stopping the takedowns, but if he can’t put Pfister away in the first the second and third rounds may go to his opponent and I could see Cedeno losing a close decision on the cards. And ultimately, that’s why I can’t bet this fight. I just don’t trust Cedeno’s cardio and I feel like Pfister didn’t get to show his full skillset in his UFC debut, which he took on short notice. I’m going to pick Cedeno to win this fight, but I can’t bet on him given the price.
