One of the prelims at UFC 189 is a three-round flyweight bout between Louis Smolka and Neil Seery. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Smolka is a -115 favorite (bet $115 to win $100) while Seery is a -105 underdog (bet $105 to win $100). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Smolka at -170 and Seery at +130, and money has since come in on the dog Seery. I actually like Smolka in this fight and see value in him at a Pick ’em price. Here’s why. Smolka (8-1) is one of the brightest youngsters in the UFC flyweight division. Just 23 years of age, the Hawaiian is already 2-1 in the UFC with a knockout win over Richie Vaculik and a decision win over Alp Ozkilic with a split-decision decision loss to Chris Cariaso mixed in. Smolka is a very dangerous fighter. At 5’9″, he’s one of the tallest flyweights in the UFC, and he uses his reach and length very well. As well, he’s also a powerful guy for his weight class as evidenced by his ridiculous side kick KO of Vaculik his last time out, one of the best knockouts of 2014. In general he prefers a high-volume type attack on his feet, but clearly he has KO power as well. As for his wrestling, he has pretty decent takedown defence for the most part but in general his wrestling is something he has to improve, especially when he fights better competition. If he fight hits the mat he does have some nice submissions, but he can be controlled by someone on top, so that’s a concern going forward. As for his cardio, it’s pretty solid, and he has a solid chin as well. Smolka’s always been underrated and undervalued for the most part in his UFC career, and with the public coming in on Seery, that seems to be the case once again. Seery (15-10) is a solid veteran of the UFC flyweight division. The 35-year-old Irishman is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Chris Beal and Phil Harris with a loss to Brad Pickett. He’s a very gritty, durable veteran who is skilled everywhere. On the feet he actually has really good boxing. He has some knockout power (six career T/KO wins), but overall is more of a volume-type striker. However, he is hittable. As far as wrestling goes, Seery has underrated takedowns and takedown defence. Elite wrestlers can get him down, but your average flyweight wrestler cannot. And for the most part, he can take his opponents down. Seery also has a solid chin and good cardio. His biggest weakness is his submission defence, as he’s been tapped out five times in his career. That likely won’t be an issue against Smolka as this fight is likely to stay on the feet, but it is a concern when he fights better grapplers. In this fight, Seery will be looking to mix in his striking and wrestling to defeat the younger, talented Smolka, and while he is a game fighter, I just feel like it’s a tough matchup for the Irishman and I see why he’s the dog in this one. Unlike most, I like Smolka in this fight. Seery’s a decent fighter no doubt about it, but I feel like Smolka’s edges in reach and youth are really going to help him out here. I think he can keep Seery at the edge of his strikes, frustrate the Irishman on the feet with his icks, and I think he can have success stopping the takedowns for the most part and win a competitive decision. Again, I do like Seery and respect him, but I’m surprised he’s been given so much respect by the betting public against a younger, fresher fighter. Given that the price is a Pick ’em now, I actually do see value in Smolka in this spot, and I’m going to make a small straight-up play on him to win this fight.
