TUF 21 Finale Date: July 12, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighter Season 21 Finale will be live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas this Sunday night (July 12th, 2015). The event will be headlined by a five round welterweight contest between Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. If interested wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs for the TUF 21 Finale: Flyweight bout: Darrell Montague (-125) vs Willie Gates (+105) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Gates should be the betting favorite heading into this 125-pound scrap, despite being the less experienced fighter of the two. He is the more athletic fighter of the two and I believe he will be more effective. I see him using his advantages in speed and athleticism to hurt Montague in this contest, likely securing a finish. However, if this fight sees it’s way for all three rounds of action for a judges’ decision, I think Gates will have done enough to take the nod, potentially with 30-27 scores on all three cards. Gabe’s Call: Gates by T/KO (strikes, 1:04 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Gates (+105) 3u to win 3.15u Middleweight bout: Caio Magalhaes (-145) vs Josh Samman (+125) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Samman should be a -280 betting favorite heading into this middleweight contest, so I really love him for a play at his current underdog price of +125. He is simply the better athlete and mixed martial artist heading into this bout, not to mention the fighter with the higher fight IQ. Technically, he is more sound than the Brazilian. Magalhaes has heavy hands and is dangerous with them, largely because he swings so wildly. I think Samman’s striking defense will benefit him in this contest, as I think there is a good chance he catches the Brazilian with a counter and follows up with more strikes to wrap up the show. Over 15 minutes of action, I can’t see Magalhaes doing enough to earn two out of three rounds against Samman. The only way I could see him winning is if he gets lucky and catches him with something, and I think the odds of that happening are very slim. Gabe’s Call: Samman by T/KO (strikes, 3:23 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Samman (+125) 5u to win 6.25u Middleweight bout: Dan Miller (-130) vs Trevor Smith (+110) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, Smith has a size advantage heading into this bout and has been the more active fighter, which in my eyes is reason enough for him to be a slight favorite. At his current underdog tag of +110, I like him for a value play here. Gabe’s Call: Smith by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Smith (+115) 2u to win 2.2u
