One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 70 is a three-round middleweight bout between Thiago Santos and Steve Bosse. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Santos is a -185 favorite (bet $185 to win $100) while Bosse is a +160 underdog (bet $100 to win $160). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Santos at -170 and Bosse at +130, and action so far is on Santos. I believe Santos wins this fight and agree with his status as the favorite. Here’s why. Santos (10-3) was a cast member on TUF 2 and didn’t fare well on the show, losing to William Macario in the house, but since entering the Octagon he’s shown himself to be a very solid fighter. The 31-year-old Brazilian is 2-2 in the UFC with knockout wins over Ronny Markes and Andy Enz with a decision loss to Uriah Hall and a submission loss to Cezar Mutante. He finished Markes and Enz with his signature body kick and overall he is a very dangerous striker on the feet. He throws good volume, has very nice leg kicks, and he has nice power. Against Hall he lost because he started to tire and couldn’t throw the same volume in the later rounds, and he lost to Mutante because his grappling is still at a novice level, although that fight was a few years ago and it’s likely he’s improved on the ground since then. But make no mistake about it, Santos is a muay Thai striker first and foremost, and with six career knockouts it’s clear that he has power. Against Bosse he’ll be looking for the knockout, and as the more varied striker in this fight he has a good chance to get it; he just has to watch his chin and make sure he doesn’t get clipped from a Bosse haymaker, and if he can do that this is his fight to win. Bosse (10-1) is making his UFC debut after two years away from the sport. This will be the first time he has made the drop to 185lbs. The 33-year-old Canadian is a former hockey enforcer and not surprisingly he has big-time punching power. Of his 10 wins, eight have come via knockout, including a KO win over UFC veteran Houston Alexander. There’s no doubt Bosse has big-time power, but other than that he doesn’t display much of an MMA game. He does train at Tristar Gym, so he’s constantly working on his game, but until we see the other facets of his game it’s hard to say how good he really is. Also concerning is an early-career stoppage loss in a fight where he fatigued late and got knocked out for his troubles. I’m sure he has worked on his cardio in preparation for his UFC debut, but at the same time we don’t know for sure yet. Considering the weight cut, the long layoff, and the uncertainties surrounding Bosse, it’s hard to trust him in this fight against a solid fighter in Santos, and that’s why he is a dog in this bout despite his big-time knockout power. Santos has long been underrated at 185lbs, but after his law few performances is finally starting to gain some respect. I’m still not completely sold on him, but I do think he beats the majority of lower-tier middleweights which is what I would classify Bosse as. Bosse hasn’t fought in a long time, he’s very injury prone, and he has bad cardio. He might knock Santos out with a haymaker, but if he doesn’t land that KO blow he’s going to lose this fight, probably by stoppage when he gasses out late. So I do like Santos here, because outside of one-punch power he has most of the advantages in this bout. Having said that, I’m going to pass on a bet here because I don’t want to bet against Bosse’s knockout power. I think there’s better opportunities on the card, so I’ll look at other bouts for wagers, although I do still believe this is a favorite-or-pass situation.
