The final four will be determined on Episode 11 of The Ultimate Fighter: Live this Friday night, as the the last two quarterfinal bouts are set to take place and will be televised live on FX at 10 p.m (ET). Last week saw sizable betting underdogs Mike Chiesa and James Vick win there respective bouts, and with two more steep wagering lines this week, the show could prove very profitable yet again for dog bettors if the trend of upsets continues. The first bout of the night will be contested between Team Faber’s Chris Saunders and Team Cruz’ Vince Pichel. The oddsmakers havee pegged Pichel a solid favorite at -345 (bet $345 to win $100), and for good reason. He’s shown a fairly well-rounded skill set and a tight ground game in his previous two TUF submission wins over Cody Pfister and John Cofer. While he can certainly win on the feet using superior technique, the gap between the ground game of he and his opponent is wide. Using his skills from top position will be Pichel’s best chance at overcoming the brawling-centric style of his opponent on fight night. That man will be Saunders, who slugged his way to decision win over Chase Hackett in their entry fight before winning a controversial split decision over Sam Sicilia in the preliminary round. Saunders was a 3-1 underdog against Sicilia and finds himself in a similar position at +255 (bet $100 to win $255) according the opening MMA odds for Friday’s bout. Finding a route to victory will be tough for him, as he holds no real advantage in any area over his opponent. Saunders will need to turn the fight into a wild brawl and hope to get the better of the exchanges if he wants to be the third man to gain entry to the semifinals. In the final bout of the evening, the last spot in the semis will be filled, as Al Iaquinta battles fellow Team Faber member Andy Ogle. Iaquinta will step into the cage as a large -555 betting favorite. He was a 5-1 underdog in his last bout against Myles Jury, picking up a hard-fought, close decision win over the man many chose as the tournament favorite. Iaquinta was able to stuff enough takedowns and land a greater amount of strikes over the course of 15 minutes, which he should also be able to do against the overmatched Brit as well. Should he evade Ogle’s trips from the clinch and looping punches from range, a place in the semifinals should come easy for the New Yorker. Ogle surprised many when he tapped out Mike Rio – who was the better grappler on paper – with a rear-naked choke submission in the second round on Episode 9. Now Ogle has a chance to shock the world again when he fights Iaquinta as a large +355 dog. Many have called one of last week’s winners, Vick, the most improved fighter in the tournament field, but Ogle is giving him a run for his money. The Sunderland, England native has shown tremendous improvements to every aspect of his game from fight-to-fight in the house, and he’ll need continue doing so if he wants to get past the sturdy Iaquinta. Both fighters have adequate striking skills, but Ogle will be at a small disadvantage if the fight stays standing. His best bet is to close the distance and force the fight to the ground from the clinch position. Once there, Ogle can capitalize on his opponent’s deficiencies and either score a submission or steal rounds en route to a decision win.
