The opening main card bout at UFC Fight Night 69 is a three-round lightweight bout between Nick Hein and Lukasz Sajewski. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Hein is a -165 favorite (bet $165 to win $100) while Sajewski is a +145 underdog (bet $100 to win $145). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Hein at -175 and Sajewski at +135, and there has been back-and-forth action on this bout as bettors are split on who wins. I do like Hein in this fight and agree with him being the favorite. Here’s why. Hein (11-2, 1 NC) is 1-1 in the UFC with a decision win over Drew Dober and a close decision loss to top prospect James Vick. The 31-year-old German native is your prototypical grinder. He will look to strike with you in the center of the Octagon and then look to push you against the fence and earn some takedowns to score points. He likes to get into brawls, and while that might not make for a long career, the fans love it and the fact he has a good personality outside the cage also doesn’t hurt. The UFC is high on Hein, as evidenced by matching him up with Vick, and he almost won that fight. He showed good power on the feet in that scrap, nearly knocking Vick out twice, but he ultimately proved to be too small for the rangy Vick and lost a decision. I think Hein would be great at 145lbs, but for now he will stick around at 155lbs. While I don’t think he beats guys like Vick, he should be able to beat most lower-level lightweights, and while Sajewski is an undefeated prospect, until he shows otherwise in the Octagon, he’s a low-level guy for now and Hein should be able to beat him in his home country of Germany. Sajewski (13-0) is one of the top lightweight prospects coming out of Europe The 24-year-old Pole is undefeated in his pro career and continues to get better and better each fight. he started fighting at age 18 and five years ago picked up a win over Marcin Held of Bellator fame, a win that looks great nowadays considering how good Held has become. Sajewski is already a pretty well-rounded fighter, and is getting better each time he fights. He hasn’t fought the level of competition that Hein has (outside of Held), but he also hasn’t taken much damage in his fights, unlike Hein who always gets tagged in his fights. It’s possible he may be one step ahead of Hein here, but we’ve seen so many times that fighters making their Octagon debuts feel the jitters and don’t show everything they’re made of. Sajewski can win this fight, but it won’t be easy, and with his opponent having more experience in the UFC it makes sense Hein is the favorite despite Sajewski’s unblemished record. I like Hein a lot. I think he’s very underrated — a game, scrappy fighter who keeps getting better. I also think he has a very good personality and believe the UFC wants to build him in Germany. Sajewski is a really good prospect, though, so this one isn’t easy to call. I’d imagine the UFC would want to get Hein a win here, so matching him up with a top European prospect makes me wonder what the UFC is doing here. Do they know something we don’t? It’s hard to say. I have to go with Hein because he has the UFC experience and because Sajewski is coming off of a year-long layoff, but as far as a bet goes, I’m not sure. Maybe if the line keeps dropping I’ll consider it, but right now I’m leaning towards picking Hein to win a decision and passing on a bet.
