One of the Fight Pass prelims at UFC 187 is a three-round flyweight bout between Justin Scoggins and Josh Sampo. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Scoggins is a -400 favorite (bet $400 to win $100) while Sampo is a +355 underdog (bet $100 to win $355). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Scoggins at -305 and Sampo at +225, and o far all the action has come in on Scoggins. I agree with the money coming in on Scoggins as I fully expect him to win this fight. Here’s why. Scoggins (9-2) is one of the top prospects in the flyweight division. The 23-year-old American is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over Richie Vaculik and Will Campuzano and losses to Dustin Ortiz and John Moraga. Scoggins actually comes from a karate background and his striking is absolutely wicked to watch — think a mini version of Stephen Thompson — but he’s relied more on his wrestling and ground game in the UFC. In each of his four fights he’s taken his opponents down to the ground to try and beat them there. He was successful against Vaculik, TKOing him with ground and pound, and against Campuzano, smothering him for 15 minutes, but against Ortiz he lost some scrambles and lost a close split decision, and against Moraga, while he did get the takedowns, he left his neck out and got submitted by a guillotine choke. Fortunately for Scoggins, he’s young and can afford to make those mistakes and learn from them now before they cost him later. I think he will take a lot from his last two fights and emerge a better fighter for it, and the betting public clearly agrees based on the line. Sampo (11-4) is 1-2 in the UFC with a win over Ryan Benoit and losses to Paddy Holohan and Zach Makovsky. The 30-year-old American was once considered a top flyweight prospect but he just hasn’t lived up to that billing since coming to the UFC. He has struggled with the weight cut and he’s struggled even more with his wrestling. And he hasn’t shown much on the feet either. He has shown some decent submission skills on the ground, and he’s not to be taken lightly in the grappling realm, but other than that he just hasn’t lived up to the hype. He has missed nearly a full year of action since the loss to Holohan, so ring rust may be a concern here. But what’s the bigger concern is he’s taking on an absolute stud in Scoggins. In order to win, Sampo will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat like Moraga did, but that’s easier said that done, and other than getting a tapout it’s hard to see him winning, which is why he’s such a big dog. Barring another brainfart like he had against Moraga, I have a hard time seeing Scoggins losing this fight. If the fight stays standing he will be the far superior striker and if the fight hits the ground he’s the better wrestler. Sampo is a crafty veteran and so Scoggins needs to be careful and not leave his neck exposed like he did against Moraga, but otherwise I think Scoggins rolls here. It would be nice to see Scoggins show some of his striking and score a knockout here, but I think what most likely is he uses his wrestling to control Sampo for 15 minute and win a decision. I really like Scoggins in this fight and think he’s someone to consider for your parlays this weekend.
