Invicta returns for just their second card in 2015, as strawweight champion Katja Kankaanpaa makes the first defense of the title she won back in September 2014. Her opponent will be undefeated Brazilian Livia Renata Souza, in what could turn out to be a back-and-forth grappling battle. Invicta FC 12 also features notable veterans like Roxanne Modafferi and Vanessa Porto, who square off in the co-main event. This is a rematch of their 2008 bout, which Modafferi won via TKO in the third round. Ediane Gomes, Raquel Pa’aluhi, and Peggy Morgan are all on this card as well. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the top five bouts at Invicta FC 12 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 8pm ET) Katja Kankaanpaa -245 Livia Renata Souza +175 Vanessa Porto -175 Roxanne Modafferi +135 Amanda Bell -280 Faith Van Duin +200 Ediane Gomes -260 Raquel Pa’aluhi +180 Peggy Morgan -140 Latoya Walker +100 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: It’s always extremely hard to gauge where these Brazilian female fighters are at. They’ve usually faced such a lacklustre level of competition on the regional circuit that doesn’t really expose much about their true skill level. That could be the case with Souza here, and given Kankaanpaa’s grappling-heavy style, I could see Souza having some success when this hits the ground and surprising the common wisdom out there, much as her compatriot Herica Tiburcio did against Michelle Waterson back in December. I have no recollection of the first fight between Porto and Modafferi, but I feel like Porto has made significant improvements since then. Physically, Porto is the more impressive fighter, and she has more than enough grappling skill to best Modafferi on the mats. If it stays on the feet, Modafferi has improved her striking drastically and she could out-volume Porto to a decision, but I have to lean towards who I view as the fresher fighter. Amanda Bell and Faith Van Duin is a complete pass for me. I think Bell can outwrestle her and get a decision or TKO, but there’s no way I’m laying almost 3 to 1 on it. I think that Pa’aluhi could pull off an upset for the second consecutive event. Ediane Gomes is consistently overrated, and I think the Hawaiian can make her work hard enough for takedowns early that she’ll be able to punish her later in the fight on the feet, either scoring a TKO or winning a decision. With the support Gomes gets, I’d have to wait on the line as it could be significantly higher closer to fight time. These fighters don’t even remotely look in the same weight class. If Peggy Morgan is unable to keep this fight on the feet and use her length to win a decision (at worst), I don’t think there’s any hope for her moving forward. She’s not a fighter I want to trust with my money, but if she gets to plus money, that might be too tempting.
