UFC 186 April 25th, 2015 Middleweight Matchup: Michael Bisping vs CB Dollaway By @fightnomics Last week on FOX we saw a title elimination fight between Luke Rockhold and Lyoto Machida, each coming off of impressive finishes in their recent wins. This week, the two men they defeated will face off in an attempt to rebound and hold their spot on the cusp of the top 10 of the division. Michael Bisping and CB Dollaway may be well outside of title contention at this point, but both remain relevant as gatekeepers in vetting future talent, and certainly Bisping will always warrant a position near the top of a card. Currently, the #10 ranked Bisping is a slight favorite at -150, with the underdog Dollaway at +130. Bisping opened as a larger favorite, but early market action came in on Dollaway for the upset. Let’s see how they stack up on the stat line. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape leans towards the upset, with the slightly larger Dollaway also enjoying a 4.5-year Youth Advantage over the veteran Bisping. Overall the size difference is negligible, but the age is definitely a concern for Bisping who has suffered six knockdowns though his 22-fight UFC career. Striking Matchup: The UFC’s first British superstar Michael Bisping has been in with the best of them. Since winning the Ultimate Fighter Season 3 (!) in 2006, Bisping has been in the spotlight since the beginning. Dollaway, who came up just short of a TUF trophy in Season 7, hasn’t quite held the same spotlight. And the styles of the two fighters are a contributing factor. This fight will likely play out as a striker versus wrestler matchup. Bisping’s striking is crisp: he’s accurate, strikes at a high pace, and tends to outwork opponents. And while landing plenty of shots, he remains hard to hit. His striking game is also based on a lot of fast footwork, which comes with a sacrifice in the power department. Though he’s earned TKO victories, he only dropped opponents from the clinch rather than while standing at a distance. On the other side of the cage, Dollaway’s striking appears to be accurate, but he strikes at a much slower pace and tends to get outworked by opponents. The problem is not his offense, but his defense. Dollaway gets hit more than average, and when he does, also gets dropped more than average. That’s a bad trait against an evasive and technical striker like Bisping. Dollaway may come out aggressively as he has in the past, and should try to set up takedowns with a flurry of strikes. But if Bisping can weather the early storm, as he is equipped to do, he will be getting the better of standing exchanges throughout. And Bisping’s famously fit cardio will begin to take over the fight with time, leading to greater advantages on the feet. Given how much movement will be generated by the chase on the feet, these two may not be fully sitting on their punches. But given the cumulative knockdowns they’ve each absorbed in their careers to date, it may not take an “H-bomb” like punch to do damage on either side. The power striking here is a bit of a wash, with Dollaway showing up as more dangerous but also more vulnerable. It probably won’t end with one punch, but the damage of numerous exchanges could definitely wobble one or the other and set up a finish. Grappling Matchup: The underdog Dollaway has successfully used his wrestling more than any fighter competing at UFC 186. Given the advantages Bisping has on the feet, we should expect Dollaway to be hunting for the takedown. And plenty of others have tried the same approach. Bisping has now faced 78 career takedown attempts, and defended them at a slightly better than average rate. But that’s actually pretty impressive given the competition he has faced over the years, including numerous wrestlers like Rashad Evans, Chael Sonnen, Tim Kennedy, and Dan Henderson. But those are all opponents who defeated Bisping, so perhaps the wrestling threat here is the difference in the fight. Certainly it’s the ground game of Dollaway that will keep the betting lines close here, as it could turn the tide of any round where Bisping can be kept on his back. It also presents a grinding decision as Dollaway’s best path to victory. But given the difference in cardio between the two, any early gains by the underdog will be undone between rounds, and he’ll still have to absorb some damage while in hot pursuit. Overall, the ground game obviously favors Dollaway, but only if he can get Bisping to the ground and keep him there, and then do so for at least two out of three rounds. It’s a tall order. Others have accomplished it, and Dollaway will also give it a try. But Bisping also knows this, and will put his fast feet to work while trying to snipe Dollaway on the way forward. Reed’s Pick: Bisping to Win, Under (Click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The price for Bisping as a favorite is low enough to warrant a straight play. He has certainly faced the better competition between the two, and has a couple paths to victory. He’s also faced strong wrestlers before, and while they did indeed get the better of him, Dollaway’s ground game isn’t quite as persistent (or dogged) as theirs, nor is it set up by good power striking. Bisping should survive the early onslaught, and then pull away as he accumulates counter strikes and his cardio trumps Dollaway’s towards the end of the second. The Over of 2.5 rounds is currently -220, a strong market read that this fight will go the distance. That’s certainly a possibility, but the fading chins of both fighters makes the Under more valuable. However, the wrestling threat warrants caution if the line rises too far, so either grab Bisping while he’s affordable or wait for his price to climb too far and take the underdog decision prop for a small upside play. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here. Want to put your knowledge to the test in Fantasy MMA for cash? Use the code “FIGHTNOMICS” for an immediate 25% deposit bonus at Kountermove.