One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 64 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Daniel Omielanczuk and Anthony Hamilton. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Omielanczuk is a -165 favorite (bet $165 to win $100) while Hamilton is a +145 underdog (bet $100 to win $145). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Omielanczuk at -140 and Hamilton at +100, and early action is on Omielanczuk. I agree with Omielanczuk being the favorite and I expect him to win this fight. Here’s why. Omielanczuk (16-4-1, 1 NC) is 1-1 in the UFC with a knockout win over Daniel Omielanczuk and a decision loss to Jared Rosholt. The 32-year-old Pole is a finisher anywhere the fight goes and has nine submission wins to his credit as well as two T/KO wins. He is dangerous on the feet as he showed in his UFC debut against Nandor Guelmino and he also is good when he’s in top control. On the feet he throws heavy punches and he also has some very nice high kicks for a big man. His biggest issue is his defensive wrestling, as he couldn’t stop Rosholt’s takedowns in his recent loss, but overall he’s a very good mid-level heavyweight and should feast on mid-tier fighters who lack the elite wrestling skills of Rosholt. Hamilton (13-4) is 1-2 in the UFC with a TKO win over Ruan Potts and stoppage losses to Todd Duffee and Oleksiy Oliynyk. The 34-year-old American has a ton of power and has seven knockout wins to his credit. On the feet he can throw punches and kicks with explosion behind them and when he gets takedowns he can land heavy ground and pound and finish fights from the top. However, his defence is horrible, as he’s been stopped in all four of his career losses. He does have a very solid win over current WSOF heavyweight champion Smealinho Rama via knockout, but other than that he doesn’t have many other good wins. Hamilton can beat the lowest-ranked fighters in the UFC heavyweight division just because of his sheer power alone, but he doesn’t have the skills or the defence to beat even the mid-tier UFC heavyweights, and that’s why he’s the underdog in this fight. In a heavyweight fight between two guys with a ton of power and not-so-good defence, I do not see this one going the full 15 minutes. I expect someone to get brutally knocked out in this one, and I believe that Omielanczuk is going to find Hamilton’s chin and finish him in his home country of Poland. I think the UFC is setting this fight up for him to win in impressive fashion, and while he’s far from a lock, I believe he’s a likely winner. I hate betting on low-level heavyweight fights just on principle alone, but I do favor Omielanczuk by quite a wide margin here and at the current line, there appears to be small value for a play. If anything, though, wait for the prop on Omielanczuk by T/KO, as that should offer more value than the current moneyline.
