UFC on FOX 15 April 18th, 2015 Light Heavyweight Matchup: Ovince St-Preux vs Patrick Cummins By @fightnomics It’s a matchup that has led to a well-publicized $1000 bet between members of the MMA community. It’s also a matchup between two ranked Light Heavyweights coming off of wins in a division in sore need of new contenders post Jones-Rumble. Currently, the #15 ranked Cummins is the slight favorite at -140, with the higher #8 ranked St-Preux the underdog at +110. The lines are tight, the ranks are flipped, and guests of the Joe Rogan podcast are now on opposing sides of $1000. So what do the numbers say, and which side should you be taking? Summary Stats:
To see more Uber Tales of the Tape for this UFC fight card, check out MMA Oddsbreaker Premium.
Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tape certainly leans towards the underdog, but is also a bit misleading given the styles at play. St-Preux is the bigger, longer, younger Southpaw, normally a perfect a sweep. But Cummins is a high-level wrestler who made a late transition into MMA. In terms of “fight years,” Cummins is still fresh, and the advantages of stance and reach for OSP will only be a factor if the fight remains standing. Striking Matchup: The striking matchup is definitely an edge for St-Preux. He has advantages in every offensive metric, being the more powerful, more accurate, and faster-paced striker. But Cummins has shown good defense in terms of strike avoidance, although he was dropped by Daniel Cormier in his debut. As long as the fight stays at a distance, St-Preux will have big advantages that make him a threat for the upset. With five knockdowns to date, St-Preux is actually the biggest knockdown threat on the entire card, despite the presence of noteworthy finishers Rockhold and Machida later in the evening. But staying at a distance may be a tall order. His high pace of striking will certainly get toned down while facing a wrestler like Cummins, or else OSP may simply walk into takedowns right out of the gate. So let’s consider that matchup on the ground. Grappling Matchup: As clear as OSP’s advantages are on the feet, Patrick Cummins should have similar advantages on the ground. Cummins is a well-decorated wrestler and has relied heavily (and effectively) on wrestling in his transition to MMA. His grappling stats are solid across the board, with the exception of submission attempts, where OSP gets the edge. If Eddie Bravo is right and OSP’s submission game has become even more dangerous than before, it still may not be enough. OSP has certainly pulled off some interesting submissions in the past, just don’t expect that to be the case here. Cummins faced a decorated submission ace in Antonio Carlos Junior in his last fight, and controlled him on route to a clear unanimous victory on foreign soil. Cummins’s wrestling is going to be superior to the vast majority of opponents he could conceivably face in the UFC, with the obvious exception of his first opponent Daniel Cormier. The fact that OSP was dominated on the mat in each of his last two losses is a big red flag for this stylistic matchup. Cummins knows he shouldn’t try to stand with St-Preux, and Cummins was quick to get less dangerous strikers to the mat in recent fights. So if this fight closes distance and goes to the ground, we should see more of the same gameplan that has defined Cummins’s current win streak. And between these two men who still are young in their careers, it’s probably Cummins who is still improving his fight game at a faster rate. OSP has yet to prove he can mount a submission attack while being controlled on the ground. Ultimately, OSP will have a steep uphill battle once the fight gets to the ground. Reed’s Pick: Cummins by Decision (Click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The current line is very close and warrants a play if there’s a solid lean and a clear path to victory. We seem to have that in the case of Patrick Cummins. While OSP turned plenty of heads when he faced Shogun Rua, the same ingredients for that upset are not present here. He certainly has the edge on the feet, but we shouldn’t expect the fight to stay there for long. Look for Cummins to wrestle his way to another decision and play him as long as he’s under -200. The Over of 2.5 rounds at -180 reflects this outcome. While OSP is the greater finishing threat, the likelihood that we’ll see a wrestling match break out makes the Over the most probable scenario. Against Bader, OSP managed to survive ground and pound, so he’s not easily finished. Consider the Over or a Cummins straight play, and if the lined drift too far, take the cheaper price and pair it with a Souza ITD prop for even money. For information on getting the “Fightnomics” the book, go here. Want to put your knowledge to the test in Fantasy MMA for cash? Use the code “FIGHTNOMICS” for an immediate 25% deposit bonus at Kountermove.