One of the prelims at UFC 185 is a three-round lightweight bout between Joseph Duffy and Jake Lindsey. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Duffy is a -440 favorite (bet $440 to win $100) while Lindsey is a +350 underdog (bet $100 to win $350). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Duffy at -405 and Lindsey at +285 and action so far is on the Irishman Duffy. I agree with Duffy being a big favorite here as I fully expect him to win this fight. Here’s why. Duffy (12-1) is making his UFC debut after a great career so far over in Europe where he fought a number of times for the Cage Warriors organization. Just 27 years of age, the Irishman holds notable wins over Conor McGregor and Norman Parke, both by submission. Duffy is extremely dangerous on the ground, as his eight career wins by tapout attest to, and he also has improving striking as he’s coming off of a quick, highlight-reel knockout via knee in CWFC. He took three years off after his first career loss via submission in 2011, and since he’s returned in 2014 he’s gone 2-0 and has looked great. It’s clear Duffy is trying to capitalize on the Irish MMA explosion, and I think he can be another star for the country, and a win over an overmatched Lindsey will put him on the fast track to do so. Lindsey (9-2) was undefeated on the regional circuit but since coming to the UFC has looked terrible, dropping both of his fights to Jon Tuck and Olivier Aubin-Mercier via submission. The 28-year-old American showed on the regional circuit he has finishing ability on both the feet and on the ground, but he hasn’t shown any of it inside the Octagon so far. He’s looked terrible in both of his fights, and I don’t know if he’ll be able to rebound from those losses against a talented guy like Duffy. Couple that with the fact Lindsey is taking this fight on short notice and I don’t see how he has much of any success in this bout, and the betting public obviously agrees as the line is so high in Duffy’s favor. I don’t know why Lindsey is still in the UFC, but it’s obvious the UFC is feeding him to Duffy so the Irishman can look spectacular, and I truly believe he will have a highlight-reel performance in his UFC debut. Duffy is dangerous everywhere the fight takes place and I fully expect him to find a way to stop Lindsey via strikes or via submission. I’m on the fence about a bet because Duffy hasn’t fought in the UFC yet and ideally I’d like to see him fight once in the Octagon before laying cash on him, but I am leaning towards making the bet bet just because I think Duffy’s potential along with fading Lindsey makes him a pretty confident spot. Either way, it’s clearly favorite or pass.
