On Friday night, Invicta puts on their first of two cards this weeke… oh? What’s that? Saturday’s card is actually a UFC event? Well then, there goes that storyline. Either way, it’s a big weekend for women’s MMA, with the top two fighters in the sport both in action. Invicta FC 11 is headlined by Cristiane ‘Cyborg’ Justino taking on Charmaine Tweet for the promotion’s inaugural featherweight title. Every MMA fan with even a passing interest in female fighting has the hope that Justino will eventually move down to 135lbs to take on Ronda Rousey (who fights on Saturday), or the UFC can negotiate a catchweight fight for the pair at 140lbs. The co-main event is probably the most intriguing on the card, as a pair of strawweights who would be considered prospects if they weren’t already so highly ranked square off, with the winner likely headed to the UFC. Alexa Grasso has been very impressive since coming to Invicta, with a pair of solid wins under her belt. Inoue’s 8-3 record is deceiving, as one of her losses is actually a win (she missed weight and was disqualified), and the other two losses have come to a pair of top 10 strawweights. And their combined age is less than one Dan Henderson. Other intriguing bouts on the card should prove to be showcases for undefeated DeAnna Bennett, who drops down to 115 for the first time, and 135lb striker Irene Aldana. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for all four of these bouts today at Several Bookmakers. ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 8pm ET) Invicta Featherweight Title Cristiane Justino -1425 Charmaine Tweet +675 Alexa Grasso -165 Mizuki Inoue +125 DeAnna Bennett -475 Norma Rueda-Center +325 Irene Aldana -305 Colleen Schneider +225 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Charmaine Tweet has never beaten a fighter with more than five career bouts, and she will be stepping into the cage with the most physically imposing female fighter in the sport. Perhaps her history of fighting at 155 will mitigate some of the massive athletic advantages ‘Cyborg’ will have here, but I doubt it. The Brazilian is also the better striker and grappler in this fight. Long story short, this won’t be a good night for Tweet, as there is only one woman on the planet who can give ‘Cyborg’ a legitimate fight, and it isn’t Charmaine Tweet. I really have no idea how Grasso/Inoue will play out. Grasso is the better striker of the two, and Inoue is the better grappler, but I’m not sure where Grasso’s takedown defense is at. With how quickly the rest of her game has developed, I wouldn’t be shocked to see her keep this on the feet and outpoint Inoue, but at the same time it’s even more likely that the public bets this line like crazy and Inoue offers some value. I think that the 20-year-old Japanese fighter’s experience against top competition will actually be the difference and will allow her to pull off the win here. Norma Rueda-Center is one of the more unheralded female fighters out there right now. A very solid wrestler, she could give DeAnna Bennett problems, especially in the later rounds of this fight. Bennett will be cutting to 115 for the first time in her career, and if that causes her cardio to suffer at all, she may end up in more of a dog fight than she anticipated. This will probably be another case where the favorite ends up way too high, and I’ll be passing. Irene Aldana is another Mexican who has been quite impressive of late, and I think she puts in another nice performance here. The big worry with her is the cardio, which cost her in her lone loss, but if she gets that sorted out she could be a contender in the division, as her striking is already on point. Schneider is the type of fighter who can stick around and make liFe difficult for anyone who has shaky cardio, so that concerns me a bit, but Aldana is the more talented fighter overall.
