One of the prelims at UFC 184 is a three-round middleweight bout between Mark Munoz and Roan Carneiro. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Munoz is a -325 favorite (bet $325 to win $100) while Carneiro is a +265 underdog (bet $100 to win $265). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Munoz at -280 and Carneiro at +200, and the action so far is on the favorite Munoz. I lean towards Munoz slightly in this matchup but believe the line is too high in his favor. Here’s why. Munoz (13-5) is one of the top-15 ranked middleweights in the UFC. The 37-year-old Filipino-American is 8-5 in the UFC overall including an 8-4 record at 185lbs with wins over the likes of Tim Boetsch, Chris Leben, Demian Maia and Aaron Simpson. Munoz is known for his wrestling skills and his ground and pound. He likes to take opponents down to the mat, beat them up with his “Donkey Kong” punches, and he’s more often than not successful, especially against mid-to-lower tier fighters. However, when he steps up in competition he gets himself in trouble. While he was once a bonafide contender, he is getting up there in age now and his chin is pretty shaky, having suffered three knockout losses in his career. He is coming off of two-straight losses and hasn’t look good in a fights in two years since his win over Boetsch. You have to look at who Munoz has been losing too, top guys like Chris Weidman and Lyoto Machida, but still, Munoz has been less than impressive for a long time now, and if he wants to stick around the UFC he’ll absolutely have to take out Carneiro this weekend, because if he loses to Carneiro, we’ll know for sure he’s totally shot as a fighter. Carneiro (19-9) had a stint in the UFC back in 2007-2008, going 2-3 overall. Since then, the 36-year-old Brazilian has been fighting in lesser organizations, going 7-1 overall including winning an eight-man, one-night tournament to earn another shot in the UFC. Carneiro is a very experience fighter who began his MMA career 15 years ago. He is primarily a grappler with nine submission wins to his credit, but he is constantly improving his striking as well. He has lost a few times via knockout so his chin is not the greatest, and his submission defence has been flawed as well, but overall he’s been a hard guy to stop in his career. Carneiro is a solid fighter and I’m glad he’s back in the UFC but he is taking this fight against Munoz on short notice and moving up a weight class to do so. He could still win just because Munoz is on such a decline, but all things considered it’s hard to back Carneiro in this spot and that’s why he’s the dog. I want to fade Munoz here, I really do, but I just can’t. Carneiro is a fighter who I have a lot of respect for but he doesn’t have the skillset that is going to give Munoz trouble. He’s also not a middleweight. I feel like Munoz will be able to use his wrestling to get Carneiro on the floor and beat him up for three rounds en route to a decision victory. I don’t think Munoz is going to look great in this fight, but I do think he wins. That being said, no way I could bet on him considering how bad he’s looked in the last few years. This fight is therefore a total pass from a betting perspective, as far as I’m concerned.
