One of the main card bouts at UFC 184 is a three-round welterweight bout between Jake Ellenberger and Josh Koscheck. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Ellenberger is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100) while Koscheck is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Ellenberger at -165 and Koscheck at +125, and so far the public is all over Ellenberger. This is a tricky fight to call but I slightly lean towards Ellenberger to get the victory. Ellenberger (29-9) is 8-5 in the UFC with wins over the likes of Nate Marquardt, Jake Shields, Diego Sanchez and Mike Pyle. The 29-year-old American is known for his vicious, one-punch knockout power as he’s taken out 18 foes via T/KO during his career. However, he has only one knockout win in the last four years. At one point Ellenberger was one of the top contenders in the division but he’s really taken a step back in the last few years. He is currently riding a three-fight losing streak with losses to Robbie Lalwer, Rory MacDonald and Kelvin Gastelum and has looked like a shell of his former self ever since his surprising KO loss to Martin Kampmann in 2012. Ellenberger still has the knockout power and the wrestling to be a force in the division, but this is his last chance to prove it this weekend against Koscheck. The UFC is giving him this fight to get back on track, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to win. He should win as he’s taking on an older opponent with a fading chin, but after seeing so many uninspired performances from Ellenberger as of late, it’s hard to bank on him until he proves he’s his old self again. Koscheck (17-8) was a cast member on TUF 1 and has parlayed his success on the show into a UC Hall of Fame-caliber career as he’s gone 15-8 in the UFC in the last decade with wins over the likes of Anthony Johnson, Paul Daley, Mike Pierce and Matt Hughes. The 37-year-old American has not competed since November 2013 and overall is on a three-fight slide with losses to Johny Hendricks, Tyron Woodley and the aforementioned Lawler. Koscheck was brutally knocked out by both Woodley and Lawler and took some much-needed time to recover, but I’m not so sure it will end up helping him all that much. There’s no doubt Koscheck, with one of the best wrestling games in the entire division to go along with his knockout power and submission prowess, is a tough out for anyone at 170lbs, but it really seems like father time has caught up to him and I’m surprised he came out of retirement for this fight against a dangerous, young opponent like Ellenberger. It’s a gamble for sure. If Koscheck wins, he jumps back into the top 15 of the division. But if he loses, especially if it’s by knockout, he’ll likely call it a career. You have to appreciate what Koscheck’s done in his career but it seems like this is the end of the road, and bettors are not expecting him to win which is why you see him as the dog here against Ellenberger. This is such a weird fight. On one side of the cage you have Ellenberger, who has looked just terrible in his last three outings over the last two years, and on the other side of the cage you have Koscheck, who hasn’t fought in over a year and who hasn’t looked good in nearly three years. It’s a tough one. I think Ellenberger probably wins by knockout but I don’t know how you can trust him since he’s looked so bad as of late. On the other hand, though, how can you trust Koscheck considering how bad he’s looked and the long layoff? The pick is Ellenberger by T/KO, but there’s no way I would touch either guy for a bet.
