One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 61 is a three-round bantamweight bout between Iuri Alcantara and Frankie Saenz. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Alcantara is a -485 favorite (bet $485 to win $100) while Saenz is a +385 underdog (bet $100 to win $385). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Alcantara at -305 and Saenz at +225, and so far the action has come in on the favorite Alcantara. I agree with the action on Alcantara as I like him to win this fight. Here’s why. Alcantara (31-5, 1 NC) is one of the top-10 bantamweights in the UFC. The 34-year-old Brazilian is 6-2, 1 NC in the UFC including a 4-1, 1 NC mark as a bantamweight. He is currently riding a three-fight win streak and overall has looked tremendous since dropping to 135lbs, with his only loss in the division coming to Urijah Faber. Alcantara is an extremely dangerous fighter anywhere the fight goes. He has 13 knockout wins in his career, including a KO of Ricardo Lamas in the WEC, as well as 12 submission wins. He is a stud in the first round but he generally tends to fade as the fight goes on. His cardio did look a little better in his last fight but overall it’s not good enough to defeat the division’s elite fighters. However, it should be enough to get by a guy like Saenz, and with his ability to finish the fight at any time, it makes sense he’s a big favorite in this fight. Sanez (9-2) made his UFC debut last summer, defeating Nolan Ticman via decision in a fight where he showed solid aggression, striking, and cardio. The 34-year-old American has won five-straight fights and overall has five finishes in his career. He is a very tough fighter and could rack up some wins against the lower-level flyweights, but taking on Alcantara in Brazil in just his second UFC bout seems like a bit too much for Saenz at this point of time, and that’s why you see him as such a big underdog here. I think Alcantara is going to get the finish in this fight. He’s just light years ahead of Saenz on the feet and in the submission department and I really do think he can get an early stoppage. If he can’t finish Saenz in round one he could gas, but I still think he’ll have enough left in the tank to get at least one of the second or third rounds and steal a decision. Obviously the line is sky-high on him, but Alcantara is one of my more confident picks and I can’t fault anyone who parlays him this weekend.
