The main event of UFC Fight Night 61 is a five-round heavyweight bout between Antonio Silva and Frank Mir. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Silva is a -320 favorite (bet $320 to win $100) while Mir is a +260 underdog (bet $100 to win $260). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Silva at -185 and Mir at +145, and the action so far is on Silva. This fight could go either way but I have to lean towards Silva to get the W. Here’s why. Silva (18-6-1) is one of the top 15 heavyweights in the UFC, if not top 10. The 35-year-old Brazilian is 2-3, 1 NC in the UFC with knockout wins over Alistair Overeem and Travis Browne and knockouts losses to Cain Velasquez twice and Andrei Arlovski. He also has a No Contest against Mark Hunt, a fight that was originally a draw. Overall, he is 2-4, 1 NC over his last seven fights and has been knocked out four times since his signature career win over Fedor Emelianenko in 2011. Silva is a gifted fighter for sure, as he has power in his strikes (13 career T/KO wins) and submission ability on the ground (three career submission wins). He also has good wrestling. The problem with Silva is his chin. He has been knocked out five times in his career and seemingly gets rocked in every fight. He is coming off of a bad KO loss to Arlovski as well, which followed him coming off of TRT. Silva is definitely talented, but with his bad chin and bad striking defence, it’s very hard to be confident about him at all going forward. Mir (16-9) is the former UFC heavyweight champion. The 35-year-old American has been a member of the UFC roster since 2001 and overall is 14-9 in the promotion with wins over the likes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (twice), Roy Nelson, Brock Lesnar, Mirko Cro Cop, Cheick Kongo, and Tim Sylvia. He has fought the who’s who of MMA heavyweights over his illustrious career, one that will likely culminate with him entering the UFC Hall of Fame. But while his career as a whole has been great, Mir’s been on a decline as of late, going 0-4 over his last four fights with losses to Alistair Overeem, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett and Junior dos Santos. He hasn’t looked good in four years and at this point seems on the verge of retirement. Having said that, he does have an amazing ground game and he still has some knockout power. Going up against a guy like Silva, you never know, but all things considered this is a tough fight for Mir and he may be knocked out for the eighth time in his career this weekend. This fight could really go either way. Neither man has a good chin and both guys have knockout power, so I really don’t see this fight going the full 25 minutes. Bigfoot is coming off of a devastating KO loss and his chin might be completely shot, but Mir’s chin is arguably even worse at this point. With the two fighters having combined for 12 T/KO losses between them, the odds of this fight ending inside the distance is very high. I have to slightly lean towards Silva here because I believe he is the better fighter at this point of time, but this is not a confident pick, and there is no way I would put my hard earned-money in the hands (and chins) of these two flawed heavyweights.
