One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 61 is a three-round middleweight bout between Cezar Ferreira and Sam Alvey. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Ferreira is a -310 favorite (bet $310 to win $100) while Alvey is a +255 underdog (bet $100 to win $255). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Ferreira at -265 and Alvey at +185, and the public is all over Ferreira in the matchup. Despite the public loving Ferreira, I like Alvey as a dog in the matchup. Here’s why. Ferreira (8-3) won TUF Brazil 1 and has since gone on to post a 4-1 record in the UFC with his lone loss coming to top-15 ranked CB Dollaway. The 30-year-old Brazilian is a big middleweight and uses his size well to bully his opponents to the mat. He is very good at locking in submissions while on the mat, such as his highlight-reel finish over Thiago Santos at UFC 163. Training with his idol Vitor Belfort at the Blackzilians, Ferreira is constantly improving his game. His striking attack is looking better each fight and so is his wrestling. However, his chin is just awful, and his cardio is bad too. He’s been rocked and dropped in almost all of his UFC fights, even his wins, and even in the fights he’s won he’s faded badly in. He’s a guy who is very good in the first round but he can fade as the fight goes on, and going up against a heavy-handed striker with heart like Alvey, that can make for a potentially disastrous night if he doesn’t get his opponent out of there early on. Alvey (24-6) is 1-1 in the UFC with a knockout win over Dylan Andrews and a decision loss to Tom Watson. The 28-year-old American has underrated knockout power and has collected 15 T/KO wins in his career to date, yet no one talks about him being a power puncher. But he most definitely is. He has good cardio as well and can go the full three rounds. His striking defence is poor and he doesn’t have very good wrestling, but overall he’s just a tough fighter and a guy who could serve very well as a gatekeeper in this division. He could get outwrestled here by Ferreira, but considering his toughness, cardio, chin, and knockout power, I think he has a better chance to win this fight than the public is indicating, and I think he’s a live dog. The betting public loves Ferreira but I don’t. He’s shown a bad chin and bad cardio in the UFC and those are recipes for disaster as he moves up the middleweight ladder, and also when he faces underrated fighters with good gas tanks and knockout power like Alvey. I see this being a close fight. If Ferreira wrestles, he should win, but if Alvey can land a big punch no way is Ferreira going to be able to hit it. Ferreira has a bad chin and Avey has underrated knockout power, so at the current line, I have to go with Alvey here as the underdog as I just feel like he has a much better chance of winning than the line indicates.
