UFC Fight Night 61 Date: February 22, 2014 Arena: Gigantinho Gymnasium City: Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil Heavyweight bout: Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (-240) vs Frank Mir (+200) Fight Breakdown: Headlining the main card for UFC Fight Night 61 in Brazil will be a heavyweight war between a pair of veterans in Brazil’s own Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir. The Brazilian is a betting favorite at -240 ($240 to win $100) heading into this contest, with his opponent Mir being a +200 ($100 to win $200) underdog to win at Several Bookmakerss. Antonio “Bigfoot (18-6-1 NC MMA, 2-3-1 NC UFC) is coming off a first round knockout at the hands of former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski and will eagerly be seeking a return to the win column in front of his fellow Brazilian crowd come Sunday night. “Bigfoot” moves slow and does not have good footwork, but he does possess serious power in his gigantic fists. He likes to land hard shots with his opponents against the cage, or while in top control on the mat. The Brazilian throws hard with bad intentions, looking to put them away. He is a talented grappler who owns black belts in judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training out of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL, Silva has good conditioning for a heavyweight and should be able to go the five round distance with Mir, if necessary. Frank Mir (16-9 MMA, 14-9 UFC) last saw action at UFC 169 over a year ago, where he lost a one-sided unanimous decision against Alistair Overeem. The loss put him on a four-fight losing streak and he has his back against the wall heading to Brazil. Mir owns a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is exceptionally talented on the mat, having arguably the most dangerous offensive submission game in the heavyweight division (Fabricio Werdum unquestionable is the most dangerous heavyweight off his back, offensive I think it’s a toss up between him and Mir). He is a very serious threat any time the fight hits the mat, and the fact that he owns nine of his 16 professional mixed martial arts victories by submission reflects that sentiment. Even at 35-years of age, Mir continues to improve as a mixed martial artist, as he has been showing improvements in both striking and conditioning, which have been two weaknesses for the veteran heavyweight throughout his UFC career. Gabe’s Prediction: I think the three most likely outcomes to this match-up are 1) Mir by T/KO, 2) Mir by Submission and 3) Mir by Decision. I realize and believe there is also a decent chance that “Bigfoot” could knock Mir out, and that is a very realistic outcome, but I think the three previously mentioned outcomes have a better chance, although Silva by T/KO is almost as likely as Mir by Decision. The majority would say that Silva by T/KO is the #1 most likely outcome to this fight, but I don’t think so. Both of these heavyweights have been showing solid conditioning, so I would not be surprised to see a decision, and if it went that way, I favor Mir to take the nod and return to the win column. That said, I am expecting the former UFC heavyweight champ to put “Bigfoot” away by either T/KO or submission within the first five minutes of action. At +200, I believe Mir is the right side for a play, as I think he should be a -200 favorite heading into this contest. I would say between -250 and -300 if the fight was in Vegas. Gabe’s Call: Mir by T/KO (punches, 1:09, round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Frank Mir (+200) 3.5u to win 7u
