One of the prelims at UFC on FOX 14 is a three-round light heavyweight bout between Nikita Krylov and Stanislav Nedkov. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Krylov is a -145 favorite (bet $145 to win $100) while Nedkov is a +115 underdog (bet $100 to win $115). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up both fighters at -120 and the early action is on Krylov. I agree with the action on Krylov as I am picking him to win this fight. Here’s why. Krylov (17-4) is 2-2 in the UFC with knockout wins over Cody Donovan and Walt Harris and losses to Ovince St-Preux and Soa Palelei. The 22-year-old Ukrainian is a kill-or-be-killed fighter and none of his 21 pro fights have gone the distance. He is a good striker who has knockout power (seven career T/KO wins) and he’s also solid on the mat, at least offensively, as he has 10 career submissions to his credit. He competed most of his career at heavyweight and he was out of shape and undersized at that weight class, but dropping to 205lbs was a good move for him and at only 22 years of age, he has lots of time to make improvements and get better. He has to get better defence and improve his wrestling, but considering how young he is I have faith he can improve. He definitely isn’t going to be a superstar or anything like that, but he’s a fun fighter to watch and will be a staple on the UFC’s European cards if he keeps winning. He is facing off against Nedkov here in what could be a very slopping yet entertaining fight, and while Krylov definitely could get stopped in this one, he could also get a stoppage himself and with a busier schedule the last few years, he is deserving of being the favorite. Nedkov (12-2, 1 NC) was once a top light heavyweight prospect but injuries and layoffs have really hindered his career. The 33-year-old Bulgarian was undefeated coming into the UFC and had some hype behind him with his victories over Kevin Randleman and Travis Wiuff in Sengoku, but his UFC career has not gone as planned. He had a tremendous debut, knocking out Luiz Cane at UFC 134 in Brazil, but then was submitted by Thiago Silva in his next fight, although the result was overturned to a No Contest after Silva tested positive for pot. Nedkov then dropped down to middleweight and while he put on a Fight of the Night performance against Tom Watson at UFC on FUEL TV 7, he was ultimately knocked out. That fight was two years ago and Nedkov has not competed since as he has dealt with injuries, but now he has returned and is ready to do damage. He is definitely a dangerous fighter capable of knocking his opponents out (six career T/KO wins) and submitting them (four T/KO wins), but his defence and cardio leave much to be desired. He has a winnable fight here against Krylov and he can certainly win by stoppage, but it’s also a dangerous fight against another guy with finishing ability and coming off a two-year layoff, it’s hard to back Nedkov and that’s why he’s the underdog in this one. Most bettors don’t respect Krylov, but I think he is pretty solid and since he’s so young he is constantly improving and getting better. His striking defence is still worrisome and his wrestling isn’t the best, but I just feel like he has what it takes to beat Nedkov, who hasn’t fought in two years. I believe Krylov can get the better of Nedkov on the feet and while he might not put him away in the first round, I think he will accumulate damage over the course of the fight and eventually get a TKO stoppage to pick up another win in the UFC. It’s not easy to bet on Krylov given his defensive flaws, but if the line drops down closer to a Pick ’em I would consider placing a wager on him.
