One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 58 is a three-round light heavyweight bout between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Igor Pokrajac. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, de Lima is a -350 favorite (bet $350 to win $100) while Pokrajac is a +260 underdog (bet $100 to win $260). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up de Lima at -270 and Pokrajac at +190, and the betting public likes the favorite de Lima. I agree with the line movement as I am picking de Lima to win this fight in devastating fashion. Here’s why. De Lima (12-2-1) was a competitor on TUF Brazil 3, ultimately losing to eventual heavyweight winner Antonio Carlos Junior on the show. Following the show, the 29-year-old Brazilian dropped to light heavyweight and he picked up a big knockout over Richardson Morreira in his debut, needing just 20 seconds to take his opponent out. De Lima is an extremely dangerous striker with heavy hands and heavy legs and he has nine wins in his career by T/KO. He also has an underrated submission game, although he only has one true submission win on his pro record to date. He fought previously for Strikeforce but lost a decision to Mike Kyle in what was the biggest fight of his career to date, and he followed that up with a KO loss to Carlos Eduardo. He has since bounced back, stringing together a number of wins, but clearly he is not invincible. Still, he has clear advantages over Pokrajac and that’s why he enters the bout as a big favorite. Pokrajac (25-11, 1 NC) is in a must-win position coming into this fight. The 35-year-old Croatian is 4-6, 1 NC overall in the UFC with wins over Krzysztof Soszynski, Fabio Maldonado, Todd Brown and James Irvin and losses to Rafael Cavalcante, Ryan Jimmo, James Te Huna, Stephan Bonnar, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Vinny Magalhaes, plus a loss to Joey Beltran that was overturned to a NC after Beltran tested positive for a banned substance. Pokrajac is currently winless in his last four fights and hasn’t won a fight in the UFC over two and a half years. His last fight came against Cavalcante last November and he was knocked out in the first round. Pokrajac has been stopped by strikes five times in his career and he’s also been submitted twice, so it’s clear he has holes in his defence. In saying that, he is a strong offensive fighter with 13 T/KO wins and eight submissions to his name. He also does good work against the fence. But overall he’s one of the weakest light heavyweights on the roster, and it seems pretty clear the UFC is throwing him to the wolves here against de Lima, and not surprisingly he’s a big underdog heading into the bout. I don’t even think this fight is going to be close. I think de Lima is going to come out swinging and knock Pokrajac out early in the first round for his second-straight win in the UFC, and I think it’s going to be a highlight-reel knockout. I think as a likely winner, de Lima at -350 is worthy of being put in a parlay. I also really like the UNDER 1.5 rounds at -155 for this bout as I just don’t see it getting out of the first round.
