The odds for the main card of the UFC’s final event of 2014 were released last week, and each of the fights falls under one of two categories thus far. Either the Brazilian fighter is a large favorite (Lyoto Machida, Renan Barao, and Erick Silva) or the line is extremely close. Theoretically, that should make for some interesting viewing with a mix of competitive bouts and perhaps some impressive finishes. Prior to those main card fights going down however, there are six preliminary bouts on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass, including the two TUF Brazil 3 runners-up trying to get their UFC tenures back on track. A couple of prospects look to make their marks on the card as well, as Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Yuta Sasaki look to follow up on their highly successful UFC debuts. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining betting lines for UFC Fight Night 58 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Lyoto Machida -600 CB Dollaway +400 Renan Barao -705 Mitch Gagnon +435 Patrick Cummins -245 Antonio Carlos Jr. +175 Rashid Magomedov -125 Elias Silverio -115 Erick Silva -400 Mike Rhodes +280 Tom Niinimaki -140 Renato Carneiro +100 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Marcos Rogerio de Lima -270 Igor Pokrajac +190 Daniel Sarafian -170 Antonio dos Santos Jr. +130 Darren Elkins -130 Hacran Dias -110 Yuta Sasaki -405 Leandro Issa +285 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7pm ET) Tim Means -290 Marcio Alexandre Jr. +210 Jake Collier -210 Vitor Miranda +160 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: My first reaction to reading that Igor Pokrajac was Marcos Rogerio de Lima’s opponent was, “He’s still in the UFC?” That on its own doesn’t exactly bode well for him, nor does his four-fight losing streak (with one overturned to a no contest), year away from active competition, or his age (he’s now 35). He’s also facing an opponent somewhat similar to the man who dispatched him in 78 seconds last November, Rafael Cavalcante. I see de Lima coming out quickly in this one, and not adding a whole lot of additional cage time to the 20 seconds it took for him to pick up his first UFC victory back in May. Daniel Sarafian hasn’t gone on to nearly the success that was tabbed for him coming off of the first season of TUF Brazil. He experimented with dropping down to 170 in his last bout, and that went terribly. He’s the type of fighter who seems stuck between two weight classes, as he’s too short to hang with a lot of middleweights, but too thick to comfortably make it to welterweight. He won’t be at a big size disadvantage against the debuting Antonio dos Santos, and he should have the better grappling. If it stays on the feet, dos Santos will get the better of things, but it’s hard to see Sarafian not coming out with a smart grappling-based gameplan in a must-win type of bout. Still, I’m not comfortable betting Sarafian in any scenario at this point, and if he gets bet up there could be some value on the dog. The Dias/Elkins fight is one that just seems too boring to actually be boring, right? Both fighters grind out victories because they don’t have a whole lot of other paths to beat opponents, but I actually think that Dias has some solid advantages in the striking here. Dias looked significantly improved against Ricardo Lamas this summer, a bout that many people had difficulty scoring. Meanwhile, Elkins just fought seven weeks ago, and struggled with his takedowns against an inferior fighter in Lucas Martins. He also took some damage in that fight, so I’m not sure how much solid training he’s been able to get in for this bout. If Dias can even prove a fraction better than Martins at getting his back off the cage (which he should, as I think the grappling is basically a wash in this fight), I think he takes home a decision with his superior striking. As an underdog, I definitely like him in this spot. The next bout is one of my favorite on the entire card, and it’s not because I think it will be a competitive fight or anything, I just really want to see Yuta Sasaki again. Sasaki became the first fighter to stop Roland Delorme (and not have it overturned to a no contest), and he did it with ease. He still needs to work on his striking, but he’ll be better than Leandro Issa in that regard simply due to his volume and aggression. On the mat, even though Issa is a very well-regarded Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu player, I think Sasaki has the edge as well, especially after watching Issa arguably drop the first two rounds of his bout to Jumabieke Tuerxun. I can definitely see Sasaki finding his way into some parlays of mine. Shifting down to fight pass, Tim Means has now gotten matchmaking that makes sense two bouts in a row. We know this guy is never going to be a championship contender with the holes in his grappling, but he’s a fun striker to watch, and he’s paired up with another striker in Marcio Alexandre Jr. I see Means being superior on the feet in this one and perhaps finding a stoppage, especially since he brings a high volume style that should disrupt a lot of what Alexandre likes to do on the feet. It seems that the general public is on Means here as well, so I’m not sure I’ll get the price I like however. Finally, if Vitor Miranda thought dealing with Antonio Carlos Jr’s grappling was tough, he’s going to have a terrible time against Jake Collier. Collier is an impressive prospect who captured RFA’s middleweight title in his last bout, facing another Brazilian in Gabriel Checco. Collier will move forward aggressively, which puts him in a bit of danger due to Miranda’s boxing, but once he gets inside I don’t see him having any problems doing work in the clinch, getting takedowns, and probably ending this fight on the ground. I actually think that dropping from heavyweight down to middleweight (for the first time) will hurt Miranda’s cardio more than help him in the size department, and that should mean that things get easer for Collier the longer this fight goes.
