UFC Fight Night 58 December 20, 2014 Middleweight Matchup: Lyoto Machida vs CB Dolloway By @fightnomics Big Picture: It will be the last UFC fight of 2014, and after a big double header weekend perhaps this feels like the year is ending with a whimper, not a bang. But then again, with two former Brazilian champions Lyoto Machida and Renan Barao returning to the Octagon, maybe this is mostly a holiday gift for the local fans of Brazil. As part of “The Time is Now” campaign, Lyoto Machida returns from a failed title bid to face a long-time veteran, CB Dollaway, who is just now making his biggest move up the division’s ranks. Either Machida will maintain a spot in permanent title-contention, or Dollaway will slay a monster that will give him immediate respect as a worthy contender. The #4 ranked Middleweight Machida opened as a huge favorite and has since risen further to -650, with the underdog #10 Dollaway at +475. Amazingly, Machida isn’t even the biggest favorite on the card (Barao is currently -750), but it’s still a steep enough line that we should check to see if the statline agrees. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The traditional tale of the tape is a wash here. While Dollaway has a slight Youth advantage, and a minimal two-inch reach advantage, Machida will have the stance advantage to help even things out. Overall Dollaway gets a slight edge, but not by much. Striking Matchup: The striking metrics remind us why Machida was a champion, and why he remains one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC history. His stats are abnormally good in nearly every way. He manages to land power strikes with remarkable precision, while also sustaining demonstrated knockdown power. He also maintains expert elusiveness, avoiding the power strikes of his opponents with one of the best defensive stats in the UFC. But there are two small possible holes in Machida’s game: his pace, and his chin. We’ll get to the chin rating in a moment, but the one knock on Machida’s offensive striking is that sometimes he shows less urgency than is needed. While his volume ratio is even with opponents, that because he uses a lot of movement circling away from strikes and he lowers the overall pace of action in his fights. In fact, while standing Machida only attempts 5.2 strike attempts per minute, which is way below the average pace of engagement. To his credit, however, his opponents average the same pace due to Machida setting the rhythm of the fight with his movement. Contrast that with Dollaway, who also matches the pace of his opponents’ standup volume, but does so with a pace of 9.6 strike attempts per minute while standing. He is accustomed to operating at a higher pace than Machida, but given the legendary striking of the Brazilian it will probably remain up to him to set the pace. The striking offense of Dollaway could be described statistically as above average, with good accuracy, and average power and pace. But defensively there are stark contrasts between the two fighters, as Machida has the world class elusiveness we already noted, and Dollaway has a porous defense that allows his opponents to land strikes nearly at will. And while both men have been knocked down a little more frequently than is typical, it’s Dollaway who has had the less resilient chin on a strike-for-strike basis. Granted, it’s Machida who is now into the danger-zone for age in MMA as he is on the wrong side of 36 years old. That age holds and a career of striking opens the door for a blow from Dollaway to rock Machida. But the puncher’s chance in MMA stands around 10-15%, so assuming the fight remains on the feet, those odds still favor Machida’s betting line. The combination of Machida’s power and precision with Dollaway’s open defense and low resiliency make for a very explosive combination as long as this fight is standing. While Machida prefers to counter-strike and may take his time to force the action, once he does he will definitely be the one landing the harder strikes. How long Dollaway can take that damage will be the only remaining question. Grappling Matchup: Which brings us to the ground, where the statline suggests Dollaway will have his only advantage. As a former All-American wrestler at Arizona State, Dollaway’s ground metrics show that he has effectively translated his grappling to MMA. He attempts a very high rate of takedowns, and lands them with better than average success. Given that he hasn’t faced many takedowns, and stuffed most of them, Dollaway’s ground control stat is quite good. Again, Machida’s numbers present a very different style. He rarely attempts takedowns but has been successful when doing so. And his takedown defense is excellent given that he has faced plenty of opponents who made that their primary objective during fights. Despite his reluctance to go to the ground, Machida’s still been in control there the majority of the time, and has a black belt in jiu-jitsu to fall back on. Overall, the ground advantage leans towards the underdog wrestler in terms of stealing a round, but getting there will be quite difficult, and Machida will certainly be prepared for it. Machida suffered a close decision loss to Light Heavyweight Phil Davis, who employed a wrestle-centric gameplan. But Dollaway’s takedown game, smaller size, and more normal wingspan may not be enough to rein in the Dragon. Should Dollaway succeed, he’ll then have to worry about Machida’s submissions. Reed’s Pick: Machida Inside the Distance (Click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The overwhelming striking advantages for Machida and his excellent ability to stay off his back all support him as the big favorite to win. For Machida, it won’t be a question of how, but when. He’ll land the harder punches, circle out of danger, and generally control the fight. But moving backwards does come at a cost, and his lack of engagement may stretch out the inevitable for him. At the current price, Machida is unplayable except as part of a multi-play parlay, although he is the perfect candidate for that. The totals limit of 2.5 rounds is reasonable despite it being a 5-round main event. With the Over +118 and the Under -138, the market currently is leaning towards an early finish. Given that these are Middleweights who both have power and also less than average resiliency, the early finish is a little more likely than usual for their division. Get better value by using Machida Inside the Distance at -270 in a parlay, or just make a straight play on the Under, which includes a hedge against Dollaway faking a takedown and landing a haymaker. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! 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