The final UFC card of 2014 goes down next Saturday from Sao Paulo, Brazil. UFC Fight Night 58 is a solid card to cap off the year, and it features a couple fighters who were notable in the sport over the year. In the main event, Lyoto Machida — half of a 2014 fight of the year contender — takes on CB Dollaway, who hopes to continue his surprising resurgence with his third victory of the year. The line has already been released for this bout, and it is predictably long. Machida currently sits as a -600 favorite, with the comeback on Dollaway at +400. The co-main event features a bantamweight bout between former champion Renan Barao and Mitch Gagnon. Barao was involved in one of the stranger storylines of 2014, as he was dominated in his title defense against TJ Dillashaw, dropping his belt by fifth-round TKO. The day before his rematch opportunity, Barao was forced out of the fight as doctors would not allow him to continue cutting weight. That meant UFC newcomer Joe Soto got boosted up to the main event on a day’s notice. This will mark Barao’s first fight since dropping the belt, and the questions about his weight cut still remain. On the rest of the main card, TUF Brazil winner Antonio Carlos Jr. faces Pat Cummins in the light heavyweight division. Rising lightweights Elias Silverio and Rashid Magomedov square off. Once thought of as a blue-chip prospect, Erick Silva looks to move past his latest setback as he takes on Mike Rhodes. Rony Jason was originally slated to open the main card against Tom Niinimaki, but he was forced off the card just days ago, and Renato Carneiro was signed to the organization to fill his spot. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the five remaining main card bouts of UFC Fight Night 58 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Lyoto Machida -600 CB Dollaway +400 Renan Barao -705 Mitch Gagnon +435 Patrick Cummins -245 Antonio Carlos Jr. +175 Rashid Magomedov -125 Elias Silverio -115 Erick Silva -400 Mike Rhodes +280 Tom Niinimaki -140 Renato Carneiro +100 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Mitch Gagnon is ahead of his time. Following his last fight, Gagnon (and the UFC’s announcers) used the power of suggestion to have the Canadian end up in the top 15 at 135lbs despite a record featuring no real notable wins in the division. Of course, with the Reebok deal now in place, everyone will be asking to be ranked. Good on you, Mitch. As far as this fight goes, I don’t think the power of suggestion will help him against Renan Barao, who is simply a better fighter. The only real worry about Barao is the state of his physical preparation. We know the skills are there, and we know that they’re superior to Gagnon in every aspect. I see Barao keeping the fight standing and Gagnon hanging around for the first few minutes. After that, the former champion will show his class as he works over Gagnon to a decision victory. I’m interested to see where this line moves, because if this fight was booked any time over the past few years, it would have seen Barao as a massive favorite, and I think he deserves more respect than he’ll likely get here. Antonio Carlos Jr. won his TUF finale fight because he was a supeior wrestler and grappler to Vitor Miranda. He may still have a slight submission edge here against Pat Cummins, but there’s no universe in which he goes 5/6 on takedowns in this fight. Despite his unfortunate debut, Pat Cummins is a solid fighter (although older than you’d like out of a fighter with just seven fights) and I think he can wear ‘Cara de Sapato’ down in this one. With how little respect Cummins got against Kyle Kingsbury in his last bout, the public could end up giving him some value after they move the line. Elias Silverio has been a bit inconsistent in his UFC performances thus far, blowing out Isaac Vallie-Flagg before being in a surprisingly competitive bout with Ernest Chavez. I think the key is that he chose to grapple against Vallie-Flagg and mostly struck against Chavez. Against Rashid Magomedov, I think he’ll find good success if he chooses to grapple (look at Magomedov’s struggles against Tony Martin early), and get outpointed if he decides to keep it standing. Silverio seems like a smart fighter, so I imagine he’ll bring a sound gameplan into this fight and that’s why I’m leaning towards the underdog. Erick Silva’s three UFC losses (just don’t with the Carlo Prater “loss”) have come to Matt Brown, Dong Hyun Kim, and Jon Fitch. While those guys don’t share the same style, the common theme is that they press forward and wear down their opponents over the course of fights. Silva has questionable cardio, and while I wouldn’t say he wilts under pressure, he just can’t keep up in most cases. Luckily, Mike Rhodes is not that fighter. He has been outpaced in both of his UFC bouts, and generally prefers to hang back. That’s the perfect recipe for Silva to get back on track in this one, and probably do it in his typically impressive fashion. Tom Niinimaki’s UFC run has been very strange. He outgrappled the best grappler he faced — in his UFC debut, no less — and then got submitted by two inferior grapplers. Renato Carneiro is another talented grappler, actually a training partner of Rani Yahya, so do we see Niinimaki’s early form or recent form? I think it’s probably the former, and that’s helped largely by the short notice Carneiro is taking this bout on. It’s hard to have a lot of faith in Niinimaki given his last two showings, but he knows he needs a win in this spot to hang around, and I expect him to pull it off.
