UFC on FOX 13 Date: December 13, 2014 Arena: US Airways Center City: Phoenix, AZ The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to FOX this Saturday (Dec. 13, 2014) with UFC on FOX 13: dos Santos vs Miocic. The action gets going live on FOX at 8pm ET, with preliminary scraps beginning at 5pm ET on FOX Sports 1 and 3:30pm ET on UFC Fight Pass before that. If interested in betting on this fight card, the lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC on FOX 13 in Phoenix are: Welterweight bout: Ben Saunders (-240) vs Joe Riggs (+220) Gabe’s Thoughts: Saunders holds advantages in the striking department, as well as the submission game. Riggs has the wrestling advantage and will likely be looking to outwrestle Saunders in this match-up, which is going to be no easy task for the veteran. I believe Riggs will find success with his takedowns, but Saunders will constantly be attacking and threatening off his back and there’s a fair chance he will lock something up, especially considering that Riggs is known to make mental errors from time to time. I favor Saunders to get his hand raised in this match-up, but think he is being over-valued at the current betting price of -240. At the same time, I can’t say there is enough value on Riggs to make a move on him. If you want to back Riggs in this fight, I would suggest the Riggs by Decision prop at +325, as I think that is almost surely the only way he will win this fight, if he does indeed end up getting his hand raised. Personally, I think this fight is to be avoided, altogether, and will be one I stay completely away from tomorrow night. Gabe’s Call: Saunders by Submission (triangle choke, 4:23 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Bryan Barbarena (+235) vs Joe Ellenberger (-275) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Ellenberger will use his wrestling advantage en route to picking up his second consecutive decision victory in the UFC. I see him finding success with his takedowns, though I do not think he should be a near 3-to-1 favorite. I could not justify a play on him at those odds, but on the same note, I cannot make a move on Barbarena at +235, either, as I do not see enough value there to warrant a play. I would not be at all surprised to see Barbarena pull away with the win in this fight, but at the current odds, it just isn’t worth the gamble. This is Ellenberger’s fight to lose; that said, he very likely could lose it. Bottom line, I think he wins this fight, but current odds offer no value either way, so we have to move along. Gabe’s Call: Ellenberger by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
