Following a weekend devoid of opportunities for MMA bettors, the coming slate of fights offers in excess of 20 lined bouts between Friday and Saturday. The biggest event of the weekend is obviously UFC 181 on Saturday evening, but Friday is the busier day in terms of volume of fights. One of three events on Friday will be Invicta FC 10, featuring one of the most notable fighters remaining in the promotion, Michelle Waterson. The atomweight champion will be defending her belt against Herica Tiburcio in the evening’s main event, and the entire nine-fight card will be shown on UFC Fight Pass. Other notable fighters on the card include former TUF contestants Tonya Evinger, Roxanne Modafferi, and Peggy Morgan. Undefeated prospect Alexa Grasso also takes on former WSOF title challenger Alida Gray. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the top seven bouts at Invicta FC 10 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 9pm ET) Invicta Atomweight Title Michelle Waterson -600 Herica Tiburcio +400 Tonya Evinger -385 Cindy Dandois +265 Andrea Lee -260 Roxanne Modafferi +180 DeAnna Bennett -175 Jennifer Maia +135 Charmaine Tweet -190 Faith Van Duin +150 Andria Wawro -210 Peggy Morgan +160 Alexa Grasso -260 Alida Gray +180 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Michelle Waterson is probably the lone fighter left on the Invicta roster that the UFC is really interested in bringing over at this point, and for that reason I don’t think they would allow Invicta to book her in overly dangerous fights. This fight fits into that mould well, as Waterson is a far better striker than Tiburcio, and while the Brazilian has some grappling skill, I don’t see her having a particular advantage on the mat, if she’s even able to get this to the mat. Tonya Evinger is certainly the more well-rounded fighter in her bout with Cindy Dandois, and she’s tough enough that she should be able to survive Dandois’ superior striking and get the fight to the ground where she should have a significant advantage. Dandois has also been out of MMA action since 2011, but she has kept busy with kickboxing, so it’s not as concerning as a normal layoff of the same duration would be. Andrea Lee looked good in her Invicta debut, but her opponent’s most notable attribute was “toughness” which means that she was supposed to look good. Still, she’s going to have significant striking and speed advantages over the plodding Roxanne Modafferi here. Modafferi snapped a six-fight, four-plus year losing streak against Tara LaRosa in her last outing, but it was a bad fight and gives me no reason to believe she can handle a young fighter coming up through the ranks who looks like she could be something in the future. DeAnna Bennett was impressive in her Invicta debut back in September as well, and while she’s in for a tougher test against Jennifer Maia, I expect Bennett to pull out the victory. Maia usually remains competitive in her bouts, but has faltered the majority of the time when stepping up in competition. Bennett’s aggression should be enough to put Maia on the back foot and stunt most of her offense. The American may even be able to find a finish as she is good at maintaining her pace and keeping the pressure on as the fight progresses. Faith Van Duin has come up through a strand of women’s MMA that I thought had passed years ago. All of her bouts have been contested with three-minute rounds, and three of her five bouts were in one night. Other than that, I know nothing about her. Those facts make me favor Charmaine Tweet here, but it’s hardly a bout I’ll be looking to bet. Andria Wawro falls into the same category in terms of fighters that I don’t know anything about, but it’s almost tempting to bet her against Peggy Morgan on principal alone. The spot to really fade Morgan was in her last bout where Irene Aldana just took her to the woodshed and could be had near a pick em price. Here, I’m not so confident in her opponent, but I just don’t think Morgan is all that good as a fighter. Speaking of Irene Aldana, her teammate Alexa Grasso is another prospect worth watching. She showed a pretty well-rounded game in her Invicta debut, and at just 21, she should continue to make solid improvements. I expect Grasso to use her superior grappling to avoid the power strikes of Alida Gray and perhaps even find a submission in this bout. After that, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Grasso in the UFC, joining some of the other young, talented fighters they’ve brought in at 115 pounds. However, the line is a bit long and if the hype on Grasso pushes it further, the value may be on Gray.
