UFC on FOX 3 Betting: Miller Meets Diaz in Lightweight Title Eliminator

The third installment of the UFC on Fox will get underway this Saturday at 8 p.m. (ET) from the IZOD Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The main event of the evening will be a lightweight title eliminator bout between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz. The winner is expected to get a shot at the winner between current lightweight champion Ben Henderson and former champ Frankie Edgar after they meet for the second time at UFC 150 on August 11. Miller (21-3) has won eight of his last nine fights, with the only loss during that stretch coming against Henderson by unanimous decision at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle. He rebounded from that setback in his last bout as the headliner at UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller on January 20 with a rear-naked choke submission victory that also earned Submission of the Night honors. UFC odds had Miller as a slight -170 favorite in that matchup with Guillard, and he will be a comparable fave here against Diaz at -215. More than half of Miller’s 21 wins have come by submission (12), and all three of his losses went to the judges to decide the outcome. Diaz (15-7) is a +175 underdog according to the UFC betting odds and has won two in a row after suffering consecutive losses. He earned a unanimous decision victory against Donald Cerrone at UFC 141 last December 30 as a +235 dog following a first-round armbar submission win over Takanori Gomi three months earlier at UFC 135. Diaz won a Fight of the Night bonus in his last bout and Submission of the Night in his previous victory. Like Miller, most of his 15 wins have come via submission (10) and six of his seven losses have come as a result of decision. The key to this fight for Miller will be staying disciplined, much like UFC interim welterweight champ Carlos Condit was in his win over Nate’s older brother Nick at UFC 143.  The Diaz brothers both try to antagonize their opponents and get under their skin, something Miller will need to tune out if he wants an opportunity to fight for the lightweight championship.  Diaz has four inches on the 5-foot-8 Miller in terms of height to go along with a five-inch reach advantage, which can be a major factor both in the stand-up game and on the ground. Miller is an outstanding wrestler though and will need to use his strength to control Diaz throughout, otherwise MMA bettors could see an upset.