The opening Fight Pass prelim at UFC 181 is a three-round featherweight bout between Alex White and Clay Collard. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, White is a -135 favorite (bet $135 to win $100) while Collard is a +115 underdog (bet $100 to win $115). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up White at -140 and Collard at +100, and the betting action has been back-and-forth so far. This is a fun fight but I like Collard as a dog in this matchup. Here’s why. White (10-1) is 1-1 in the UFC so far with a knockout win over Estevan Payan and a knockout loss to Lucas Martins. The 25-year-old American is a very powerful striker, particularly with his punches, and he likes to keep his fights on the feet. However, if you look at his record, he actually has five submissions compared to four knockouts, so perhaps he will look to switch things up and take Collard to the floor, although from what we have seen from him so far in the Octagon he will live and die by the sword and keep this fight standing. White is a dangerous fighter and is a prospect to watch out for at 145lbs, but he has one huge issue, and that’s that he gets hit way too much. He stands there and takes punches, and while his chin held up well through the first 10 fights of his career, it eventually failed in the third round against Martins. If he can start fighting smarter he can win more fights in the UFC, but from what we’ve seen so far from him, this is a guy who wants to keep his fights standing, and going up against a powerful striker like Collard seems like a tough matchup on paper. And yet, despite that, he enters the bout as the favorite. Collard (13-5) made his UFC debut on a week’s notice against top featherweight Max Holloway and lost via third-round TKO. However, he really took it to Holloway before he gassed out in that fight, and although he did eventually lose, I was actually very impressed with him. Collard is only 21 years old and is constantly improving and getting better from fight to fight. For a young fighter, he also has a ton of experience, including two bouts against Team Alpha Male assistant coach and former UFC lightweight Justin Buchholz. Prior to the loss to Holloway, Collard was undefeated in his five previous fights, and was quickly snapped up by UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby for a reason, and that’s because Collard is very fun to watch. He is very aggressive, constantly moves forward, and keeps throwing strikes. He has knockout power, too, and has won eight fights so far by knockout. Shining in defeat to Holloway, I thought Collard would get more respect from the betting public in this matchup against White, but he enters as the underdog, and to be honest, it’s surprising to me as I think he wins the fight. I’m expecting an all-out war between two young featherweight strikers who need a win to stick around the Octagon. White is likely the more powerful striker, but Collard is more technical, is more aggressive, and has a better chin. If this fight goes the full three rounds it could go either way on the scorecards because it will likely be a back-and-forth affair, but I don’t think it goes the full 15, as I think Collard is going to accumulate the damage on White’s chin just like Martins did and knock him out before the end of three rounds. I think Collard should be favored in this fight, so at +115, I think he’s worth a bet as an underdog based on the line value, although I only recommend a small or medium-sized bet because his poor striking defence could make this a sweat if the fight hits the cards.
