One of the main card bouts at UFC 181 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Todd Duffee and Anthony Hamilton. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Duffee is a -280 favorite (bet $280 to win $100) while Hamilton is a +240 underdog (bet $100 to win $240). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Duffee at -280 and Hamilton at +200, and Duffee remains a big favorite as the lines have tightened. I agree with Duffee being a big favorite in this fight as I see him winning via knockout. Here’s why. Duffee (8-2) was at one point in time the top heavyweight prospect in MMA but a series of injuries and losses have slowed him down. The 28-year-old American is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Phil De Fries and Tim Hague and a loss to Mike Russow. He also lost to Alistair Overeem during a brief period of time where he was blacklisted from the UFC by Dana White. Since returning to the Octagon he is 1-0 with the win over De Fries, but that fight was two years ago. Duffee hasn’t fought since then, and while the guy is ultra talented, that’s a long layoff for anyone. When he’s healthy, though, Duffee certainly has championship potential. He has absolutely vicious knockout power in all of his limbs, with all eight of his career wins coming by first-round knockout save for one that came in the second round. He has good wrestling, as well, although his cardio and chin are definitely concerns. I still believe in Duffee and at only 28 I think he can still be a player in the heavyweight division, and a win against a solid veteran in Hamilton would be a big first step back towards greatness for Duffee. Hamilton (13-3) is 1-1 in the UFC with a win over Ruan Potts and a loss to Oleksiy Oliynyk. The 34-year-old American was in the MFC prior to the UFC where he defeated top prospect Smealinho Rama by KO to earn his UFC contract. He will be looking to do the same thing here by taking out the youngster Duffee as an underdog, but it won’t be easy. While Hamilton certainly has knockout power and decent wrestling, he has shown flaws in his takedown defence and his chin has been tested before, most notably by Walt Harris, who knocked Hamilton out on the regional circuit. I think Hamilton is a solid fighter for sure and he has a chance to beat Duffee if he can connect with his chin, but overall it’s a bad style matchup for him on paper and unless he can score a one-punch knockout like Russow did, I don’t see him having any sort of success in this fight. I think Duffee’s boxing and knockout power is just going to be way too much for Hamilton to overcome and I absolutely see him winning this fight via knockout, likely in the first round. The only thing that scares me about Duffee is the long layoff and he could fade if this fight goes into the later rounds, but I don’t think cardio is going to play a factor as I doubt this fight exits the first round. At -280 Duffee should be considered for parlays, although with the layoff perhaps there are safer favorites on the card to play instead of him. But either way I like Duffee a lot here, and think he returns to form in this fight.
