One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 57 is a three-round flyweight bout between Brad Pickett and Chico Camus. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Pickett is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100) while Camus is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Pickett at -210 and Camus at +160, and so far there has been little line movement as the lines have tightened. I agree that Pickett should be favored and I’m surprised the line isn’t a bit higher. Here’s why. Pickett (24-9) was one of the top bantamweights in the UFC for a long time, but since dropping down to flyweight simply hasn’t looked like the same fighter. Now 36 years of age, the Brit is 1-1 at 125lbs (4-4 overall in the UFC, including his time at 125lbs) with a win over Neil Seery by decision and a loss to Ian McCall by decision. His wrestling looked on point against Seery, but it was useless against McCall and it remains to be seen how he will do against other grinder types at 125lbs. His striking looked particularly poor in both fights, and although his sturdy chin held up, he looked slow on the feet and didn’t throw many strikes. Still, this is a guy who has wins over the likes of Demetrious Johnson, so you know he’s a solid talent. He’s probably the best wrestler to come out of England, which is definitely a feather in his cap, although he just doesn’t seem to have the same stamina at flyweight. Regardless, though, with his mix of wrestling, submissions, and knockout power, and with his training at American Top Team, Pickett is always a threat to win fights, and with a victory over Camus at UFC Fight Night 57 will get some of the respect back that he lost in his last time out against McCall. Camus (13-5, 1 NC) is making his flyweight debut after going 2-2, 1 NC at 135lbs. The 29-year-old American trains at Roufusport has very good wrestling and in many of his fights has been able to get his opponents down and lay on top of them. Having said that, in his last fight it was actually he who was laid on, which is the reason he is making the drop to 125. He also showed in his time at bantamweight that,while he is fairly dominant on top, he can also be submitted, as one can see in his loss to Dustin Kimura. Still, his top control is strong and he used it to take home decision wins over Dustin Pague, Kyung Ho Kang and Yaotzin Meza (later overturned to a NC due to testing positive for marijuana). He also has decent ground and pound and cardio. But he has a very poor fight IQ, and that could cost him against a smart fighter like Pickett. It will be interesting to see how Camus’ wrestling looks at 125lbs, but until he can prove it, it’s hard to pick him against a solid grappler like Pickett, and that’s why he’s the favorite here. I am expecting a relatively competitive fight between these two flyweights, and the fact Camus is dropping down a weight class makes this fight even more interesting, but I do feel like Pickett is the better overall fighter and should win this fight. I am not discounting the possibility of Camus lying on top of Pickett once Pickett tires out, but I do feel like Pickett can control the first two rounds with his wrestling and striking advantage to win a decision. I was actually expecting a higher line on Pickett so I do feel like there could be some value on Pickett at the current price, but based on how bad he’s looked at flyweight it’s probably better to pass on him in this spot, although I am expecting him to come through with the victory regardless.
