In a fight with definite implications for the Featherweight title picture, former Lightweight champion and current #3 ranked Featherweight Frankie Edgar is taking on the surging #2 ranked Cub Swanson. The fight is definitely a potential barnburner, but they won’t be the only eager strikers on the card, as the co-main event features #7 ranked Lightweight Bobby Green and #11 ranked Edson Barboza, both of whom prefer to stand and trade leather and have done so quite well. There’s a sneaky amount of talent lined up for the event in Austin Texas, with two heavyweight pairings, and even the #2 ranked Flyweight Joseph Benavidez buried further down the main card. So let’s stack them all up on one key metric: power head striking accuracy. Some of the results may surprise you!
The overall UFC average for this metric is 25%. For more on the nuances and benchmarks for MMA statistics get the book “Fightnomics” at Amazon.
Snipers: Leading the pack is Bobby Green, who may not have a sharp jab, but lands his power head strikes with amazing accuracy. He should get the chance to trade strikes with Edson Barboza, who rarely ever attempts takedowns. In fact, despite his accurate striking Green is the more likely one to want this on the mat. It will be interesting to see where this fight goes but as long as they throw leather, there could be a knockout at any moment. Cub Swanson has been around a long-time, but the six-fight win streak he’s on in the UFC clearly shows that his game is more dangerous than ever. His very accurate power striking is paired with excellent striking defense making him very good at the old game of “hit and don’t get hit.” He’ll need that against another good ‘strike and fade’ boxer in Frankie Edgar. Other notables include accurate strikers who happen to be paired with fighters with poor accuracy. That’s true for Chico Camus, Dustin Ortiz, and Isaac Vallie-Flagg, all facing opponents further down the graph. Middle of the Pack: It may surprise you to see Frankie Edgar down in the middle of the pack, or even Edson Barboza for that matter, but the trick to those in the details. It turns out that Edgar has actually been improving his head strike accuracy throughout his career. He has genetic gift for a man of his size, an abnormally long reach, and as he has progressed through his career he has simultaneously increased both his volume and his accuracy, meaning he lands a lot more punches now than ever before. He’ll need to, because as we mentioned before he is facing a sniper in Cub Swanson. Barboza on the other hand uses a lot of kicks in his attack, making his striking very diverse and dangerous, but also a little lower in accuracy. And it just so happens he’s facing the most accurate striker on the card in Bobby Green, who is excellent at using a lot of movement. Barboza is another guy who is very rangy for his division, and he’ll need all that range against a sniper like Green. UFC veterans Matt Wiman and Yves Edwards both compete in arguably the UFC’s deepest division: the Lightweights. Their striking accuracy isn’t bad considering how long they’ve been around in the UFC, and they will both be facing less experienced opponents making good litmus tests for the newcomers. Swing and a Miss: Unlike the children of Lake Wobegon, all the kids can’t be above average. But the three low men on the totem here could have good reasons for their low striking accuracy. Brad Pickett and Joseph Benavidez are both Flyweights, the most elusive fighters in the UFC, meaning their overall accuracy is lower. Bigger guys can’t get out of the way like smaller fighters. And Benavidez actually has a very high striking volume and Knockdown Rate, making up for his low accuracy. Jared Rosholt on the other hand is a heavyweight who prefers to wrestle than to stand and trade, so expect him to be quicker with takedowns than he is throwing bombs. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis, or on Facebook if you prefer.