The UFC’s first foray into Mexico has been many years in the making, and the organization had to have hoped to make a bigger splash than it seems they’re destined for following another rash of injuries. Three of the company’s bigger Latin draws were forced off of the card in the weeks leading up to the event, as UFC heavyweight champion (and proposed headliner) Cain Velasquez suffered a knee injury, original TUF winner Diego Sanchez went through two opponents before getting injured himself, and Erik Perez — who has gone so far as to be involved in some pro wrestling cross-promotion in Mexico — suffered a shoulder injury. In the place of those three fighters, there are a bunch of fighters who have Latin heritage, but don’t resonate particularly well with the Mexicano community. It should be noted however, that Fabricio Werdum was a far better Mexican speaker on TUF: Latin America than Cain Velasquez, the supposed Mexican champion. Perhaps that will see Werdum translate well to the Mexican community now that he is facing Mark Hunt in an interim title bout. Werdum is a sizeable -485 favorite (bet $485 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers heading into this bout, with the comeback on Hunt at +350 (bet $100 to win $350). Despite the booking issues, the card is not without quality matchups, as welterweights Jake Ellenberger and Kelvin Gastelum meet in the evening’s co-main event, while featherweight contenders Dennis Bermudez and Ricardo Lamas look to leapfrog the line of contenders forming behind Jose Aldo. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for all of the main card bouts for UFC 180 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET) UFC Heavyweight Title Fabricio Werdum -300 Mark Hunt +220 Kelvin Gastelum -155 Jake Ellenberger +115 Dennis Bermudez -185 Ricardo Lamas +145 TUF Latin America Bantamweight Final Jose Quinonez -265 Alejandro Perez +185 TUF Latin America Featherweight Final Yair Rodriguez -185 Leonardo Morales +145 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: There’s really only two fights for me to look at here, as I haven’t gone back and watched TUF Latin America beyond Diego Rivas and Rodolfo Rubio. My first question is whether Kelvin Gastelum will be adequately prepared for this bout, as his recent training camps have seemed less than inspiring. If he’s not prepared, Jake Ellenberger could certainly get the better of him, and it’s quite possible that Ellenberger can get to him even if he did have a good camp. Ellenberger’s big problem has been guys who can shut down his power game with more technical striking. That’s really not Gastelum’s game. Gastelum could still find his way to victory be outworking Ellenberger over the last 10 minutes, but that’s where the preparation will be very important. If Gastelum isn’t able to push hard for the full three rounds, I think his undefeated run has a very good chance of coming to an end, and it’s not a lock that even the best version of Gastelum gets past Ellenberger. I’m still not sure if Ricardo Lamas looked worse or Hacran Dias was simply that improved in his last bout. I lean towards Lamas being on a bit of a decline, as he is getting towards his mid-30’s, and that tends to be when guys in the lighter weight classes start to slow. If that is the case, he’s going to be in trouble against a physically superior Dennis Bermudez. Bermudez still has defensive issues on the feet, but I don’t think Lamas is the guy to exploit those holes, and once it gets into close quarters, there are few fighters capable of overpowering Bermudez. I think Bermudez is able to get his punches off quicker in the striking exchanges and win more of the wrestling battles en route to a decision victory.
