One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 56 is a three-round bantamweight bout between Thomas Almeida and Tim Gorman. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Almeida is a -350 favorite (bet $350 to win $100) while Gorman is a +260 underdog (bet $100 to win $260). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Almeida at -400 and Gorman at +280, and the betting public has surprisingly come in on Gorman early on. I think Almeida wins the fight and I believe the action on Gorman is dead money. Here’s why. Almeida (17-0) is the former Legacy FC bantamweight champion. Only 23 years of age, Almeida is undefeated through 17 fights in the organization with all of his wins coming by way of stoppage. The Brazilian is devastating on the feet, throwing crisp combinations with bad intentions every time out. He has power in all of his limbs, and he has won his 11 fights overall by knockout. He started his career in 2011, and since he is improving every fight, it’s scary to think how good he could be in a few years with some more seasoning. The only knock against Almeida is that he hasn’t proven his takedown defence against a top-level wrestler, but as we’ve seen with Conor McGregor, sometimes that doesn’t even matter when your striking is so good. Almeida is taking on Gorman here in a fight that’s essentially striker vs. grappler, and as long as Almeida can keep this fight on the feet he should be able to win in devastating fashion, which is why he’s a big favorite here. Gorman (8-3) was a competitor on TUF 18 but was forced off the show after suffering a hamstring injury. He returned to the UFC earlier this year, but lost a decision to Mitch Gagnon, although that loss is not so bad in hindsight. Gorman is a grinder with decent wrestler and some decent power. He has six career knockouts in his pro career, including knockouts in his last three pro victories. While he might have success in Titan FC or Bellator, I just don’t feel like he’s a UFC -caliber fighter and I wonder why the UFC keeps matching him up with studs like Gagnon and Almeida. It seems like his toughness and grinding ability is giving him the right to test out up-and-coming prospects, but I don’t think that’s good for him. Maybe Gorman is a bit better than I think he is, but I still don’t think he beats Almeida, and I agree with him being a big underdog. This is the biggest blowout matchup of the entire weekend. Almeida is a stud prospect and could be a future champion while Gorman is nothing more than a journeyman. Almeida has finished every single fight he’s ever had, and I expect him to finish Gorman in this fight a well, likely by knockout but possibly by submission. I do not see one single path to victory for Gorman and Almeida at -350 is a very likely winner and worthy of parlaying.
