One of the Fight Pass prelims at UFC 179 is a three-round lightweight bout between Fabricio Camoes and Tony Martin. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Camoes is a -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) while Martin is a +105 underdog (bet $100 to win $105). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Camoes at -165 and Martin at +125, and based on the live movement the majority of bettors are backing Martin to get the upset. UFC 179 has a lot of difficult fights to call, and this is one of them, but I do think Cameos will win and believe he should be slightly favored. Here’s why. Camoes (14-8-1) is a true veteran of MMA, having began his career back in 1997, fighting the legendary Anderson Silva to a TKO loss in only his second career bout. Since his early loss to Silva, the now-35-year-old Brazilian has carved out a pretty solid career for himself, having had two stints in the UFC. However, while he has performed well in the smaller shows, he hasn’t looked very good in the UFC. Overall he is 1-3-1 in the Octagon with his lone win coming over Tommy Hayden and his losses coming to Jim Miller, Melvin Guillard, and Kurt Pellegrino with a draw against Caol Uno. He has very high-level BJJ as his seven career submission wins will attest to, as well as underrated striking and power (four career TKO wins). But while Camoes is talented offensively, his defence is questionable as he has been both submitted and knocked out multiple times in the past. He is also getting up there in age. I’m not super high on Camoes but I actually think Martin is a step down from the guys he has been fighting as of late, and even though Camoes hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years, I do think he deserves to be a slight favorite in this fight against Martin. Martin (8-2) was a highly-touted prospect before he made his UFC debut, but after going winless in the Octagon in his first two fights, many, including myself, have jumped off the Martin bandwagon. He is 0-2 so far in the UFC with a submission loss to Beneil Dariush and a decision loss to Rashid Magomedov. In both of those fights, Martin looked very strong early only to fade as those fights went on which exposed the weakest part of his game, his cardio. He is a big, strong lightweight but he seems like a guy who cuts way too much weight and with a bad gas tank he will find it hard to win fights at this level. Skill wise he has a very strong ground game and he has some decent striking too, as well as some toughness and grit, but overall he just doesn’t seem like a UFC-caliber fighter. I think Martin is best served to go back down to the regional scene and work on his game, because right now I have a hard time picking him against any 155lber on the roster considering his cardio issues, and because of that I agree with him being the underdog against Camoes despite being stronger, younger, and tougher than his opponent. Martin can absolutely win this fight, but he only has about five minutes to do it. If he doesn’t get a first-round finish, I expect him to gas very badly, fade, and get finished himself later in the fight. I like Martin, but his cardio looked horrible in his first two UFC fights and taking this fight on short notice won’t help him. I’m not a huge fan of Camoes and don’t know why the UFC has always give him such big-name matchups in the past, but I finally think they have given him a winnable fight here against Martin, who is a talented, yet inconsistent fighter. Look for Martin to start off strong but as long as Camoes can survive the first few rounds he should have the advantage later and will likely win this fight by either knockout or submission in round two or three, although a decision is possible. Camoes is not someone I trust with my money so I can’t recommend a bet on him, but I trust Martin even less and so my official pick is Camoes in this fight, although I wouldn’t lay juice on him. If anything, the prop on this fight not going the distance at -175 makes sense for a bet as I don’t see it going the full 15 minutes regardless of who wins.
