The co-main event of Bellator 129 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Houston Alexander and Virgil Zwicker. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Alexander is a -130 favorite (bet $130 to win $100) while Zwicker is a -110 underdog (bet $110 to win $110). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Alexander at -140 and Zwicker at +100, and there has been slight action in Zwicker’s direction so far. This isn’t an easy call but I believe Alexander will win this fight and I don’t necessarily agree with the action on Zwicker. Here’s why. Alexander (16-10, 2 NC) is a UFC veteran who came to Bellator last year. So far Alexander is 1-1 in Bellator with a loss to Matyushenko and a win over Matt Uhde. He also went 2-3 in the UFC back in the day, with his wins coming over Keith Jardine and Alessio Sakara, which to this day remain the biggest wins of his career. Alexander is now 43 years of age and although he still packs a punch, he does seem to be nearing the end of the road. But he still has power, as his 11 career knockouts will attest to. In fact, his last six wins have come by T/KO. Alexander is basically a brawler with heavy hands and some big leg kicks. His wrestling is mediocre and his ground game is poor and his chin isn’t good either. He also has bad cardio. He was originally set to fight James Thompson and I would have likely picked Thompson there, but now that he’s going up against Zwicker on short notice, I believe Alexander has a good chance to get his second win in Bellator and I agree with him being the favorite here. Zwicker (12-4) is making his third appearance in Bellator, having lost to Linton Vassell by submission in his last outing and defeating Nick Moghadden in his first bout in Bellator. He is a former Strikeforce fighter and one of Scott Coker’s “guys,” so it makes sense that he is in Bellator now, although I don’t agree with him being in the co-main event. However, he is usually in exciting fights so it doesn’t surprise me considering Bellator’s shift towards a “fan-friendly” type of matchmaking on Spike. Zwicker is 32 years old and is basically a heavy-handed brawler. He has heavy hands and leg kicks and has won nine fights by T/KO, and his last four wins have come via knockout. He is a smaller heavyweight, but Alexander isn’t that big either so Zwicker shouldn’t be at a huge disadvantage there. Zwicker has fought a decent level of competition in his career, and even holds a knockout win over Ovince St-Preux from a five years ago. But in general he’s faltered when stepping up in competition. He is a decent brawler and deserving of a spot on Bellator’s roster, but he is taking this fight on short notice and I have a feeling it won’t end well for him, although with his heavy hand he always has a chance of knocking his opponent out. I really don’t see this fight going the full 15 minutes, and honestly, it probably ends inside of a round. Both fighters have a lot of power but neither has good defence and neither guy has a particularly good chin. Because of the short notice factor, I slightly lean towards Alexander here, but I am not confident at all in him and don’t think it would be a smart bet to lay juice on “The Assassin.” If for whatever reason the line flips and Alexander becomes the dog there could be some value on him, but overall this fight is a pass from a betting perspective.
