UFC Fight Night 53 Date: October 4, 2014 Arena: Ericsson Globe Arena City: Stockholm, Sweden UFC Fight Night 53 will be live from Stockholm, Sweden this Saturday with an 11 -ight card, including a four-fight main card. All fights will be streaming live on UFC Fight Pass, with preliminary action getting going at 12:10pm ET and the main card kicking off at 3pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden are: Welterweight bout: Gunnar Nelson (-320) vs Rick Story (+260) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this may very well be the fight where a bigger, stronger grappler grinds Nelson out and earns a victory mostly due to his size advantage over the Iceland native. Nelson does not cut much weight, if any at all to make 170 pounds, and could be competing in the lightweight division if he chose to make the drop. That won’t happen until he feels the size difference in his match-ups, which could have been the case in his last outing against Zak Cummings. Cummings won the first round against Nelson and was doing well in the second, until the fight hit the mat. Nelson wrapped up a rear naked choke and made it look as easy as putting your hand in your pocket. I think Story’s submission defense will hold up when he decides to employ his wrestling to seal rounds in this five round main event match-up. I think it’s a very close fight on the feet, but considering that Story will likely find success pressuring “Gunni” against the cage and scoring some takedowns, I favor him to pick up the win in this fight, likely by unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. Story is, in a sense, playing the role of “gatekeeper” in this match-up, and should Nelson successfully get past him, he will be proving that he really does indeed belong in the welterweight division, regardless of whether or not he is capable of making 155-pounds. I personally think it’s going to be a tough test for Nelson; certainly the toughest of his professional mixed martial arts career. That’s why I don’t agree with him being the favorite in this match-up, especially at the ridiculously juiced line of -320. I don’t believe he should be so heavily favored against a well-rounded and durable veteran like Story. I think Story should be a -160 favorite heading into this welterweight contest, so I really like him for a large value play at the current underdog betting price of +260. Gabe’s Call: Story by Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-47) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Rick Story (+255) 4.5u to win 11.7u Lightweight bout: Mairbek Taisumov (-195) vs Marcin Bandel (+160) Gabe’s Thoughts: Bandel will be able to hold his own on the feet, but Taisumov will have the advantage in that department heading into this 155-pound scrap. However, it will be Bandel who holds the advantage in the grappling department, being a very talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who owns 12 of his 13 professional mixed martial arts career victories by way of submission. I expect the fight to hit the mat sooner or later, where even though Taisumov has displayed a solid top game, I think it will be in Bandel’s world, regardless of whether he is on top or finds himself on his back with the Dagestani in top position. I think Bandel will manage to submit the durable Taisumov in this match-up, but if he does not, I think he has a good chance of taking home a decision, using his advantages on the canvs. The only way I see him losing this fight is if Taisumov decides to keep all 15 minutes of this fight on the feet and has a 100% success rate with his takedown defense. It is possible, but I am counting against it, especially considering that I think that Bandel is a legitimate fighter, and likely the superior fighter of the two. I don’t think Taisumov stands a chance with Bandel on the mat and believe his fight IQ may not be very good, either. For those reasons, I think Bandel should be a 2-to-1 favorite over the Dagestani fighter, so at the current underdog price of +160, I really like him for a big play. Gabe’s Call: Bandel by Submission (armbar, 3:23 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Marcin Bandel (+160) 4.5u to win 7.2u
