UFC 146: May 26, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada Roy Nelson (-200) Profile: Nelson (17-7) has dropped three of his last four fights after starting his UFC career with a 2-0 mark, including a victory in The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale against Brendan Schaub. However, all three of Nelson’s losses came against top-level talent in the heavyweight division, including the two fighters who will be battling for the UFC championship in the main event. The 35-year-old Las Vegas resident is 3-3 in the UFC overall, with all three losses coming via unanimous decision against Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir and Fabricio Werdum. Nelson’s lone victory over the past two years was a first-round TKO of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic at UFC 137. Dave Herman (+160) Profile: Herman (21-3) has split his two fights in the UFC following a second-round TKO loss to Stefan Struve at UFC on FUEL TV 1 on February 15. The 27-year-old started his pro MMA career with a 15-0 mark and has gone the distance just once in 24 bouts overall. Of his 21 wins, 15 have been knockouts with five resulting in submissions and one going to a decision. Two of Herman’s three losses have been decided by TKO with the other a disqualification for illegal knees. His one win in the UFC came against John Olav-Einemo by second-round TKO at UFC 131 last June 11. Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has Nelson as a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100) against Herman, who is a +160 underdog (bet $100 to win $160) according to the UFC 146 odds. Anybody who follows Nelson knows that he is always up for a challenge against the top contenders in the heavyweight division. “Big Country” has certainly already had some good opportunities to fight the best in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how motivated he will be for this bout. Nelson was originally slated to square off against Gabriel Gonzaga on this card, but Gonzaga had to withdraw due to injury. Nelson was then scheduled to face Antonio Silva, but Silva was called upon to fill in for Frank Mir against Cain Velasquez. Before that announcement became official, Nelson went on Twitter and campaigned for himself to challenge Velasquez in what was previously viewed as a heavyweight title eliminator bout. Meanwhile, Herman does not really fit into the title picture whatsoever right now because he needs more experience in the UFC. A win here would certainly help his cause and could permanently end Nelson’s dream of someday getting a shot at the title.
