UFC Fight Night 51 Date: September 13, 2014 Arena: Nilson Nelson Gymnasium City: Brasilia, Brazil Bantamweight bout: Iuri Alcantara (-295) vs Russell Doane (+260) Fight Breakdown: The main card for UFC Fight Night 51 on UFC Fight Pass in Brazil will feature a bantamweight contest between a Brazilian and a Hawaiian, when the hometown favorite Iuri Alcantara squares off against Honolulu’s Russell Doane. Alcantara is the betting favorite at -320 ($320 to win $100), with the return on the underdog Doane being +260 ($100 to win $260) at Several Bookmakerss. Iuri Alcantara (30-5-1 NC MMA, 5-2-1 NC UFC) is coming off a very impressive knockout win over England’s Vaughan Lee at UFC Fight Night 41 just over three months ago. The finish came only 25 seconds into the very first round of action and puts the Brazilian on a two-fight winning streak, which he will be looking to extend to three in front of his fellow Brazilians on Saturday night. The 34-year old has decent takedown defense and can defend himself well from his back if and when put on the canvas. He is good at working his way back to his feet, but also has an excellent guard. Alcantara is active off his back, as he likes to work his elbows and look for submissions opportunities. He does not constantly attack with submissions, but he does always look to set them up. The 36-fight veteran has great reversals, especially during grappling exchanges. He is very good at getting the mount and being dominant from said position. The Brazilian is also talented on the feet, being a very explosive striker, most particularly in the first round of action. He is a southpaw who has a strong straight left, a nice left hook and an unorthodox yet effective overhand left. Alcantara also loves to implement his knees in his striking attack, and he is always looking to finish the fight. It is no surprise that 25 of his 30 professional mixed martial arts career victories have come inside the distance, with a near-even 13 knockouts and 12 submissions. The former featherweight does not have very good cardio, especially at 135-pounds, so I believe he will be at a disadvantage in that department against the well-conditioned Hawaiian. Russell Doane (14-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC) currently enjoys a three-fight winning streak, including victories over Marcus Brimage, Leandro Issa and Jared Papazian, respectively. It was his victory over Papazian under the Tachi Palace banner, in which he scored a fourth round TKO over the UFC veteran that earned him a call from Sean Shelby and the UFC. He made his promotional debut against Issa back in January and very impressively defeated the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt via technical submission, putting him to sleep with a triangle choke. He last saw action in a Pay Per View main card bout at UFC 175, where he picked up a closely contested split decision against The Ultimate Fighter season 14 veteran in Brimage. The Honolulu native is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who is good at everything he does. He has solid boxing and kickboxing skills; he works his punches well, and is effective with his kicks, both high and low. He has fast hands, and packs a lot of power behind all of his strikes. Doane has good footwork; he uses the cage well and moves great on his feet. He is quick, though he often prefers to be patient and look for opportunities to explode and hurt his opponents. The 17-fight veteran is a talented grappler, possessing great takedowns, with a powerful top game to compliment it. He works a very nice body lock takedown, and is generally relentless with all takedowns, especially when he’s going for a double or single. He works the guard well and loves to rain down vicious punches and elbows. Doane has a very good submission game, as was evident with his submission victory over Issa. He will again be at a submission disadvantage in this bout against Alcantara, though I would not be at all surprised to see him submit another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. The Hawaiian is solid on the mat, and owns some impressive flying submission attacks. Complimenting his offensive submission game is an equally good or better defensive submission game. That said, he is hardly ever in submission trouble, as his fight IQ generally tends to keep him out of it, though he has suffered two losses due to tapout throughout his six year professional fighting career, and one of them came against undefeated UFC bantamweight Michinori Tanaka on the regional circuit in the Philippines. The former Tachi Palace bantamweight champion has solid takedown defense and a great sprawl, but when taken down, he works an excellent guard. He is very dangerous off his back, as he threatens with fists, elbows, and all sorts of submissions. The Hawaiian is also good at finding escapes, and pulling off reversals, ultimately finding himself in top position, where he most favors being. Now on a three-fight winning streak and 2-0 inside the Octagon, the Hawaiian faces the greatest challenge of his professional mixed martial arts career this Saturday night, as he gets set to take on the heavy-favored veteran Alcantara on enemy soil in Brazil. Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer than the betting odds currently suggest, and feel Doane has a decent chance of getting his hand raised. He has an advantage in cardio heading into this scrap, so I feel he will be able to win the third round, when fatigue sets in for Alcantara. That aside; I think he has a good chance of winning one of the first two rounds. In short, I think we are getting good value with Doane. I like taking him for a bet, and think it would be silly to bet against him at -320. Doane at +260 all day for me; I think the line is off and hopefully Saturday night will prove me right. Not just with it being a close fight, but with the Hawaiian getting his hand raised! If the odds were tight, I would make a small play on Doane, but again, I feel there’s real value in him at +260, so I have to make the play larger. Gabe’s Call: Doane by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Russell Doane (+260) 3.5u to win 9.1u
