One of the most exciting fights at UFC Fight Night 50 is a three-round lightweight bout between Michael Chiesa and Joe Lauzon. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Chiesa is a -135 favorite (bet $135 to win $100) while Lauzon is a +115 underdog (bet $100 to win $115). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Lauzon at -140 and Chiesa at +100, and the public flipped the line by betting on Chiesa. I agree with the line movement as I definitely see Chiesa winning this fight. Here’s why. Chiesa (11-1) won TUF 15 and has since gone onto achieve a 4-1 record in the UFC with wins over Francisco Trinaldo (UD), Colton Smith (SUB), Anton Kuivanen (SUB) and Al Iaquita (SUB), with his only loss coming to top contender Jorge Masvidal (SUB). Chiesa is a terrific submission grappler and eight of his wins have come via SUB. He is especially good at taking his opponents’ back, and his last six wins have come via rear-naked choke. He also has underrated power in his hands, having knocked down Masvidal in their fight and having knocked out James Vick on TUF. He has also shown excellent toughness and ability to come back when down on the cards throughout his entire career. Just 26 years of age, Chiesa has shown he could be a future top 10 fighter with his impressive wins in the Octagon, but he needs to get a signature win and Lauzon would be just that. Lauzon (23-9) is one of the stalwarts of the UFC lightweight division and one of the most exciting fighters in the entire sport. he is 10-6 in the UFC with wins over the likes of Mac Danzig (UD), Jamie Varner (SUB), Melvin Guillard (SUB), Jeremy Stephens (SUB) and Jens Pulver (KO), and his only recent losses coming to top fighters like Anthony Pettis (KO) and Jim Miller (UD). Win or lose, Lauzon is exciting and in his career has racked up 12 post-night bonus awards. However, he seems to be slowing down and now at 30 years of age, Lauzon looks to be on a steep decline. Although he is coming off a win over Danzig, that’s a guy who retired right after the fight and to me it’s not that impressive of a win. Although he did get that awesome win over Varner a few years ago, he’s taken so much punishment in his fights since then (particularly against Miller and Johnson) and you have to wonder how long his body is going to hold up for. You can never count Lauzon out of a fight because of his heart and ability to find ways to win, but he’s clearly on the downside of his career and it’s difficult to back him at this point. Although Lauzon is tough dude, he is clearly on the decline and Chiesa is catching him at the right down in a “passing of the torch” type of matchup. I think Chiesa is going to really take it to Lauzon in this fight and pick up an impressive victory. Whether it’s standing or on the ground, I think Chiesa is going to be the one pushing the action and I think he’ll be rewarded for his efforts with a decision win at the end of 15 minutes, or possibly even get a stoppage (although I doubt it since Lauzon is so tough). At -135, Chiesa is one of my favorite bets on the card as I believe this is a great spot to fade Lauzon and go with a younger, improving fighter to pick up the upset.
