An intriguing three-round lightweight bout between Carlos Diego Ferreira and Ramsey Nijem takes place on the UFC 177 main card. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Ferreira is a -190 favorite (bet $190 to win $100) while Nijem is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Ferreira at -280 and Nijem at +200, meaning there has been money coming in on the dog Nijem. Money has come in on Nijem here and while it wouldn’t shock me if he pulled out the win, I do feel like Ferreira should win this fight as I’m going against the betting public here by picking him to win. Ferreira (10-0) is the former Legacy FC lightweight champion and he continued his undefeated streak in the UFC this year with a submission over Colton Smith in his promotional debut. Only 29 years of age, Ferreira is constantly getting better and better and very well could be a future title challenger in the division. He has excellent wrestling and on the ground his submissions are absolutely sensational. He has six career sub victories to his name and many of them come after he takes his opponent’s back and taps them out. He is a very special fighter on the ground and going up against a fighter with somewhat questionable sub D in Nijem, there’s a very real chance Ferreira picks up another submission victory in the UFC. Nijem (9-4) has looked great lately, going 2-0 in 2014 so far with wins over Justin Edwards and Beneil Dariush in what was his signature win to date. Nijem is only 26 years old and keeps getting better and better every fight out. He is 5-3 overall in the UFC including victories over the aforementioned Edwards and Dariush as well as CJ Keith, Daniel Downes and Joe Proctor, and his losses have come to James Vick, Myles Jury and Tony Ferguson. He has very good wrestling, a strong top game on the ground, improving striking, good cardio and is always improving. However, he has some flaws in his game, as his chin and his submission defence aren’t great, and that’s scary going forward against the other fighters in the division. Although I see the improvements in Nijem that everyone else does, I can’t look past those flaws, and I definitely believe Ferreira should be the favorite here. Nijem has looked great recently and with his newfound confidence I can see why money has come in on him. But if you really look closer at this bout, you can see why Ferreira originally opened up at 3-to-1. Because while Nijem is a good fighter, his flaws could cost him against someone with the ability to finish fights like Ferreira. If Nijem chooses to strike with Ferreira, while he does have he edge on the feet his chin is also worse and he could very well get KOed with one blow. And if the fight goes to the ground, while Nijem does have a great top game, he also leaves his neck exposed and could get caught in a submission at any time. So while he is a bit of a wildcard these days, he’s also too flawed for me to back, and I have to pick Ferreira here, and at -190 he may potentially have some value at this point.
