Last weekend, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the main card of UFC Fight Night 50 at Several Bookmakers. Today he added the odds for the rapidly shrinking undercard of the organization’s next free event. In the past week, Rob Font, Ian Entwistle, and Andre Fili were all forced out of their bouts due to injury. Luckily, none of their opponents will go without fights on September 5th. Font and Entwistle’s originally scheduled opponents, Chris Beal and Dustin Kimura were slotted to face one another. Then, Kimura got injured as well, meaning that UFC newcomer Tateki Matsuda will step in on just over a week’s notice to keep Beal on the card. Meanwhile, after picking up his first UFC win last weekend, Chas Skelly will try to recreate Chris Leben’s turnaround from the summer of 2010. He takes his second fight in two weeks against Sean Soriano. Only four fighters haven’t been affected by injuries on the undercard. Lightweights Al Iaquinta and Rodrigo Damm will serve as the lead-in to the main card, while middleweights Chris Camozzi and Rafael Natal look to break their current losing streaks. The opening odds for these bouts can be found below: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 9pm ET) Ronaldo Souza -210 Gegard Mousasi +160 Alistair Overeem -380 Ben Rothwell +260 Derrick Lewis -150 Matt Mitrione +110 Joe Lauzon -140 Michael Chiesa +100 Charles Oliveira -190 Nik Lentz +150 Justin Scoggins -280 John Moraga +200 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 7pm ET) Al Iaquinta -385 Rodrigo Damm +265 Rafael Natal -230 Chris Camozzi +170 Chris Beal -290 Tateki Matsuda +210 Chas Skelly -180 Sean Soriano +140 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Because I wasn’t able to post my thoughts on the openers for the main card, I’ll take a look at where those lines have gone and offer my insight. Overeem has increased to a -525 favorite, and it’s hard to disagree. He has advantages everywhere aside from his chin in this bout, but that chin could be his downfall once again. I don’t think Rothwell can get the knockout here, but at the current price it’s hard to lay that much juice on Overeem. The Lewis/Mitrione line has tightened up and seen two-way action. Lewis is now -140, with Mitrione +120. I’d expect this to remain close right up until the fight. Mitrione has an edge in technical striking, but Lewis seems to have more power and be better in the wrestling and grappling departments. If Mitrione can play a bit of a matador here he can pick up the win, but I don’t think his cardio will hold up long enough to avoid Lewis’ power shots or grappling for three rounds. The line in Lauzon/Chiesa has flipped completely, with Chiesa now being a -145 favorite. My initial lean is that Chiesa will be able to outlast Lauzon in this bout, as we’ve seen the former TUF winner come back on many, many occasions in the past and Lauzon has shown a tendency to fade. Money has come in on Nik Lentz to bring Charles Oliveira down to a -145 favorite. This I don’t understand, given that Oliveira was able to wear Lentz out significantly in under a round in their first bout. The disparity on the feet here will be significant, and Oliveira’s submission game keeps opponents constantly off balance, even strong top position grapplers. The Scoggins/Moraga line has moved slightly towards Moraga, which I can understand but ultimately disagree with. Scoggins should be able to outgrapple Moraga, who has struggled with takedown defense in the past, and the striking here should be competitive as well. It will be a competitive bout, as most high-level flyweight fights are, but I think Scoggins eventually gets the win. As for the undercard bouts: Iaquinta really should get the win over Damm, but then again he should have beaten Mitch Clarke as well. This is a fairly similar matchup to Damm’s last fight, as he’s going up against a better striker with good takedown defense. It’s hard to have a ton of confidence in Iaquinta given some of the mental mistakes he makes in fights, but he wins this fight unless he dives into a submission again. Chris Camozzi has some of the least effective wrestling in the UFC. He hasn’t scored a takedown in the organization and has only stopped 55% of takedown attempts against him. Every opponent who has tried to take him down in the UFC has done so with the exception of Nick Ring. Rafael Natal has a lot of faults, but he’s a pretty solid wrestler and I see that being a decent path to victory for him here. It’s hard to see either of these guys getting much support from the public after their recent performances, so this line movement will be interesting. At first glance, you may wonder why — even on short notice — the UFC has brought Tateki Matsuda in. He’s 10-5 and just 2-2 in his last four. Looking more closely at his record and you see that of his five losses, one has come by DQ (for an illegal elbow), and three have been split decisions. A couple different officials in the cage with him and we could be looking at a 14-1 or 13-2 fighter. As for his actual skills, he’s pretty well-rounded, but his best work is done taking the fight to the ground and maintaining top position, even if he prefers to stand for the most part. His striking is fairly fundamental with lots of use of the jab as a range-finder and a good work rate, and he can knock fighters out on occasion with his right hand. His cardio is very solid as well. The biggest flaw in his game is that he is a bit slow, and very hittable on the feet. Against Beal, that could become a big issue, as I don’t expect Matsuda to try to take this fight down. He’ll end up in a striking battle with someone who can pull the trigger quicker than he can and likely be behind on points the whole way unless he lands one of those right hands. The short notice for Chas Skelly is worrisome, but he didn’t have a particularly tough bout against Tom Niinimaki, so as long as he can time his cut correctly he should be fine in that regard. Soriano is also a more difficult opponent for him than Niinimaki due to Soriano’s takedown defense and superior striking. I think Skelly may be able to wear Soriano down and eventually get the better of him in grappling exchanges. On the feet however, Soriano should have a decent advantage here, so it all depends on who can control the wrestling in this one. I think the line may get inflated because of Skelly’s recent victory, and if that’s the case, Soriano could be worth a play.
